US natgas snaps five-week winning streak on demand concerns
Updates with latest prices
Oct 4 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures eased on Friday, snapping a five-week winning streak on weaker demand outlook even as the latest federal report showed utilities added a smaller-than-normal amount of gas into storage last week.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.6 cents, or 3.9%, to settle at $2.854 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Prices hit their highest level since mid-June at $3.019 this week, but the contract posted a weekly decline of about 2%.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that utilities added 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 27 which was below the build of 57 bcf that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll. That compares with an injection of 87 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 98 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
"We're probably getting the last blast of summer demand. We're probably heading in to a more shoulder-like season as far as demand and I think that's why we pulled back," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
"Supplies going into the winter season are coming in lower than previous expectations, that's raising some hopes in the industry that has been hurt by low prices that there could be some light on the horizon," Flynn said.
The front-month contract has gained about 60% since late August, mainly due to a drop in the amount of fuel going into storage for the 2024-2025 winter heating season.
Storage injections in July, August and likely in September were at record lows, according to federal energy data going back to 1997.
That is because many producers reduced their drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. They have remained relatively low since that time.
"With the market apparently focused on end-of-season storage that could offer a surplus of only around 4% against the averages, current fundamental developments of a bearish nature are apt to be overshadowed by supportive items such as production that is still being downsized at about 100 bcf/d while LNG export prospects are expected to lift by next week," energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 101.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Financial firm LSEG estimated 142 total degree days (TDDs) over the next two weeks, higher than the 141 estimated on Thursday. Average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, was seen at 95.6 billion cubic feet (bcfd) this week and 95.4 bcfd next week, LSEG forecast.
"Natural gas is also getting a boost from the delay of the longshoreman strike. There was a lot of concern that natural gas demand could have plummeted had the strike continued for a period of time on fears that factories would shut down production of petrochemicals and plastics, so the market is getting a bullish relief," Flynn added.
U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports began reopening late on Thursday after dockworkers and port operators reached a wage deal to settle the industry's biggest work stoppage in nearly half a century, but clearing the cargo backlog will take time.
Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were largely flat on Friday morning, after rising on Thursday afternoon, as lower demand and stable supply were expected. NG/EU
Week ended Oct. 4 Forecast | Week ended Sep 27 Actual | Year ago Sep 27 | Five-year average Sep 27 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +68 | +55 | +87 | +98 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,615 | 3,547 | 3,420 | 3,357 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 4.7% | 5.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.97 | 2.95 | 3.15 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.94 | 12.52 | 14.55 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.09 | 13.09 | 16.30 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 61 | 57 | 97 | 96 | 106 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 81 | 84 | 47 | 62 | 55 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 142 | 141 | 144 | 158 | 161 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 101.8 | 101.2 | 101.3 | 102.3 | 96.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.4 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 109.7 | 108.7 | 108.7 | N/A | 103.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | N/A | 5.9 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.3 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 10.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 6.9 |
U.S. Residential | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 7.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 40.2 | 35.4 | 32.7 | 35.4 | 30.9 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.2 | 21.7 | 22.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 78.1 | 74.4 | 74.3 | 73.4 | 74.5 |
Total U.S. Demand | 98.5 | 95.6 | 95.4 | N/A | 92.7 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 93 | 94 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 88 | 89 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 91 | 92 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 4 | Week ended Sep 27 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 8 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 44 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 16 | 18 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.75 | 2.77 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.56 | 1.43 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 4.58 | 4.25 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.52 | 1.45 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.40 | 2.54 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.74 | 1.62 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.55 | 3.80 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.96 | 1.65 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.66 | 0.37 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 37.50 | 33.25 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 46.50 | 42.75 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 37.00 | 31.50 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 46.67 | 68.25 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 46.75 | 63.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 42.00 | 61.50 |
Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Swati Verma in Bengaluru
Editing by Matthew Lewis
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
අදාළ වත්කම්
නවතම පුවත්
වියාචනය: XM Group සමාගම් ක්රියාත්මක කිරීම පමණක් වන සේවා සපයන අතර වෙබ් අඩවියේ හෝ වෙබ් අඩවිය හරහා ලබා ගත හැකි අන්තර්ගතය බැලීමට සහ/හෝ භාවිත කිරීමට පුද්ගලයෙකුට ඉඩ සලසමින් අපගේ මාර්ගගත වෙළඳ පහසුකම වෙත ප්රවේශය ලබා දෙන අතර වෙනස් කිරීමට හෝ පුළුල් කිරීමට අදහස් නොකරයි. එවැනි ප්රවේශය සහ භාවිතය සෑම විටම (i) නියමයන් සහ කොන්දේසි, (ii) අවදානම් අනතුරු ඇඟවීම් සහ (iii) සම්පූර්ණ වියාචනයට යටත් වේ. එබැවින් එවැනි අන්තර්ගතයක් සාමාන්ය තොරතුරුවලට වඩා වැඩි යමක් සපයා නොමැත. විශේෂයෙන්ම, අපගේ මාර්ගගත වෙළඳ පහසුකමේ අන්තර්ගතය පෙළඹවීමක් හෝ මූල්ය වෙළඳපොළවල කිසිදු ගනුදෙනුවක් සිදු කිරීමට ඉදිරිපත් කිරීමක් නොවන බව කරුණාවෙන් සලකන්න. ඕනෑම මූල්ය වෙළඳපොළක වෙළඳාම් කිරීම ඔබේ ප්රාග්ධනයට සැලකිය යුතු අවදානමක් එක් කරයි.
අපගේ මාර්ගගත වෙළඳ පහසුකමේ ප්රකාශිත සියලු කරුණු අධ්යාපනික/තොරතුරුමය අරමුණු සඳහා පමණක් අදහස් කෙරෙන අතර මූල්ය, ආයෝජන බදු හෝ වෙළඳ උපදෙස් සහ නිර්දේශයන්; හෝ අපගේ වෙළඳ මිල පිළිබඳ වාර්තාවක්; හෝ ඕනෑම මූල්ය උපකරණයක ඉදිරිපත් කිරීමක් හෝ ඒ සඳහා පෙළඹවීමක්; හෝ විශේෂ ඉල්ලීමකින් තොරව ඔබ වෙත ලබා දෙන ලද මූල්ය ප්රවර්ධනයන් ලෙස නොසැලකිය යුතුය.
ඕනෑම තෙවන පාර්ශවීය අන්තර්ගතයක් මෙන්ම XM විසින් සකසන ලද අන්තර්ගතය එනම් අදහස්, පුවත්, පර්යේෂණ, විශ්ලේෂණ, මිල ගණන් සහ වෙනත් තොරතුරු හෝ මෙම වෙබ් අඩවියේ අන්තර්ගත තෙවන පාර්ශවීය වෙබ් අඩවි සඳහා සබැඳි සාමාන්ය වෙළඳපොළ විවරණයක් ලෙස "පවතින පරිදි" සපයා ඇති අතර එහි ආයෝජන උපදෙස් ඇතුළත් නොවේ. ඕනෑම අන්තර්ගතයක් ආයෝජන පර්යේෂණයක් ලෙස අර්ථ දක්වා ඇති ප්රමාණයට, ආයෝජන පර්යේෂණයේ ස්වාධීනත්වය ප්රවර්ධනය කිරීමට නිර්මාණය කර ඇති නෛතික අවශ්යතාවලට අනුකූලව අන්තර්ගතය සකසා නොමැති බවත් එලෙස අරමුණු කර නොමැති බවත් ඔබ සලකා පිළිගත යුතු අතර එබැවින් එය අදාළ නීති සහ රෙගුලාසි යටතේ අලෙවිකරණ සන්නිවේදනයක් ලෙස සලකනු ලැබේ. ඉහත සඳහන් තොරතුරු සලකා මෙතනින් ප්රවේශ විය හැකි, ස්වාධීන නොවන ආයෝජන පර්යේෂණ සහ අවදානම් අනතුරු ඇඟවීම පිළිබඳ අපගේ දැනුම්දීම ඔබ කියවා තේරුම් ගෙන ඇති බව සහතික කර ගන්න.