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Reuters - 39 minuten geleden

FX option implied volatility - why low isn't cheap

BUZZ-COMMENT-FX option implied volatility - why low isn't cheap July 16 (Reuters) - Foreign exchange implied volatility is close to long term lows in many of the most commonly traded currency pairs, but that doesn't mean FX options are cheap. FX volatility is an unknown yet key part of an option premium, so implied volatility is used as a substitute.
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Reuters - 8 uur geleden

China's yuan slips on economic weakness despite tight offshore funding

China's yuan slips on economic weakness despite tight offshore funding SHANGHAI, July 16 (Reuters) - The yuan eased against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as a slew of weak Chinese economic data dampened sentiment, but offshore funding conditions remained tight, preventing the currency from sliding further. The world's second-largest economy grew much slower than expected in the second quarter as a protracted property downturn and worries over jobs knocked the wind out of a fragile recovery, keeping
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Reuters - 22 uur geleden

FX options wrap - billions, value, GBP call, intervention, ZAR

BUZZ-FX options wrap - billions, value, GBP call, intervention, ZAR Trader option data from DTCC shows 12.5 billion euros of EUR/USD FX options , most around 1.0900, expiring on Monday and Tuesday, so no surprise to see a limited EUR/USD spot range around this level. Quite a busy data week which includes a European central bank policy announcement could increase volatility and add value to shorter-dated expiry EUR/USD options , where 1-week expiry implied volatility is currently trading lows sin
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Reuters - 1 dag geleden

As China's leaders meet, economy sends distress signal

BUZZ-COMMENT-As China's leaders meet, economy sends distress signal July 15 (Reuters) - The writing's on the wall that the Chinese economy needs help, specifically in the consumption and property segments. As the Third Plenum commences, there's cautious optimism that policymakers will lay a path for more stimulus measures. Data released Monday showed Q2 GDP grew significantly less than expected at 4.7% annually versus forecasts for 5.1%.
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Reuters - 1 dag geleden

Rupee likely to inch up despite weakness in Asian peers

INDIA RUPEE-Rupee likely to inch up despite weakness in Asian peers By Nimesh Vora MUMBAI, July 15 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is lik ely to open marginally higher on Monday, shrugging off the decline in Asian peers amid higher odds of D onald Trump winning the November election. Non-deliverable forwards indicate t he rupee INR=IN will open at 83.50-83.52 to the U.S.
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Reuters - 4 dagen geleden

FX options wrap - JPY success, big EUR, low FX volatility

BUZZ-FX options wrap - JPY success, big EUR, low FX volatility FX option implied volatility is at, or edging toward, long-term lows in the major currency pairs, reflecting broader risk appetite and a continued lack of FX volatility . Benchmark one-month expiry implied volatility trades three-year at 4.9 , while one-month GBP/USD is trading just above its post-Brexit lows of 5.5. Other currency pairs and maturity dates are following suit as markets head in to the traditional summer lull.
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Reuters - 4 dagen geleden

Here's why HSBC is closing its short EUR/USD trade

BUZZ-COMMENT-Here's why HSBC is closing its short EUR/USD trade July 12 (Reuters) - On May 16 2024, HSBC opened a trade idea to sell EUR/USD at 1.0880 and target 1.0550 with a stop at 1.1050. They have since chosen to exit that trade close to entry and here's why. In a note to clients, HSBC FX research strategy analysts acknowledged that they are basically back to square one nearly two months after entering this trade, which says a lot.
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Reuters - 4 dagen geleden

China Policy Watch-PBOC signal is an amber light

BUZZ-COMMENT-China Policy Watch-PBOC signal is an amber light July 12 (Reuters) - It is increasingly clear that China must loosen monetary policy soon, as the economy stalls . Conditions for easing are materialising as odds of a U.S. rate cut rise, but a signal from China's central bank could curb some enthusiasm. Friday's USD/CNY fixing was surprisingly close to the previous day's, virtually ignoring the overnight USD slump due to softer U.S.
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Reuters - 5 dagen geleden

FX options wrap - Low FX vol justified but JPY caught off guard

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Low FX vol justified but JPY caught off guard Low overnight expiry FX option implied volatility flagged expectations of a minimal reaction to the U.S. CPI data, which proved to be justified . That is except for USD/JPY, where the price action would suggest officials may have taken advantage of the weaker U.S. data to give the JPY an intervention-led boost .
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Reuters - 5 dagen geleden

Exploring the depths: How low options prices impact FX

REFILE-BUZZ-COMMENT-Exploring the depths: How low options prices impact FX Adds chart and links July 11 (Reuters) - FX option implied volatility is trading 3-year lows in the benchmark 1-month expiry EUR/USD contract and is under broad based pressure across other currency pairs and maturity dates, but what does this mean for FX markets? FX volatility is an unknown, yet key parameter of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand-in.
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Reuters - 5 dagen geleden

China's yuan edges higher as Fed's dovish hints dampen dollar

China's yuan edges higher as Fed's dovish hints dampen dollar By Summer Zhen HONG KONG, July 11 (Reuters) - China's yuan slightly firmed against the dollar on Thursday, as the greenback struggled for direction after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated it is getting closer to cutting interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell sent some dovish hints on rate policy when making comments during testimony to Congress this week, raising market hopes for a rate cut later this year.
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Reuters - 6 dagen geleden

FX options wrap - FX outlook, big profits, CPI risk, GBP 1.30

BUZZ-FX options wrap - FX outlook, big profits, CPI risk, GBP 1.30 FX option implied volatility remains under pressure across all currency pairs and maturit y dates, with a lack of FX realised volatility set to be further impeded by the typical summer lull . EUR/USD is a fine example for the broader FX outlook, with its benchmark 1-month expiry implied volatility testing 3-year lows at 4.9 .
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Reuters - 6 dagen geleden

FX reaction to U.S CPI data, according to options

BUZZ-COMMENT-FX reaction to U.S CPI data, according to options July 10 (Reuters) - FX volatility is an unknown, yet key part of an FX options premium so dealers use implied volatility as a stand-in. Any increase in implied volatility after the options expiry includes a major event therefore reflects the additional FX volatility that dealers feel that event will generate.
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Reuters - 6 dagen geleden

Chance of early China rate cut low, but stakes rising

BUZZ-COMMENT-Chance of early China rate cut low, but stakes rising July 10 (Reuters) - As China's much-anticipated Third Plenum approaches , expectations for significant policy stimulus are low, though the stakes are rising. The latest economic data make a strong case for monetary easing soon, yet China's central bank remains hesitant. Inflation is slowing in China, data released Wednesday shows.
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Reuters - 1 week geleden

FX options wrap - Fed risk, appeal, Brexit, JPY digital, RBNZ

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Fed risk, appeal, Brexit, JPY digital, RBNZ FX option implied volatility continues to drift lower amid a lack of FX realised volatility, which should serve to enhance the appeal of FX carry trades . Benchmark 1-month expiry EUR/USD implied volatility eyes 3-year lows at 4.9 4.9 and 1-month GBP/USD eyes its post Brexit lows from May and March at 5.5. Even 1-month expiry USD/JPY implied volatility has fallen from 10.4 to 8.8 in a week as spot is drawn to alleged 161.00 digit
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Reuters - 1 week geleden

Fed chair Powell risk to according to FX options

BUZZ-COMMENT-Fed chair Powell risk to FX - according to FX options July 9 (Reuters) - The market is awaiting for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to deliver his semi annual testimony before the banking committee of the U.S. senate at 10:00 a.m. in New York (1400 GMT) on Tuesday and related FX option pricing can offer clues about the expected FX reaction.
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Reuters - 1 week geleden

China's yuan slides on weaker guidance; Powell testimony in focus

China's yuan slides on weaker guidance; Powell testimony in focus SHANGHAI, July 9 (Reuters) - China's yuan slipped on Tuesday against the U.S. dollar, as the central bank set a weaker daily official guidance rate, while traders awaited testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for clues on the trajectory of U.S. interest rates. Despite the dollar index .DXY hovering near a multi-week low, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set a weaker fix after strengthening it for the past three sessi
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Reuters - 1 week geleden

FX options wrap - FX signals, AUD up, EUR down, expensive

BUZZ-FX options wrap - FX signals, AUD up, EUR down, expensive USD weakness and risk appetite have been weighing on FX option implied volatility and there is little to change that narrative unless Thursday's U.S CPI data beats expectations. EUR/USD implied volatility has almost erased all of the sharp gains seen after the French election was first called in mid June, while risk reversals contracts have given back most of their additional risk premium for EUR puts over calls.
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Reuters - 1 week geleden

Why EUR/USD is more likely to return to its range low

BUZZ-COMMENT-Why EUR/USD is more likely to return to its range low July 8 (Reuters) - There are good reasons to think EUR/USD's upside potential will be limited and more chance of it heading back toward the lower end of the long term range at 1.1240-1.0448 over coming months. While the French election may have avoided the fiscal disaster associated with a win for the far right National Rally (RN) , it has resulted in a hung parliament which will being its own problems for France and potentially,
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Reuters - 2 weken geleden

FX options wrap - FX stability and risk appetite hit premium

BUZZ-FX options wrap - FX stability and risk appetite hit premium No surprise to see FX option implied volatility under broad based pressure as risk appetite and a weaker USD leave FX subdued within well worn ranges. U.S. holiday-thinned markets played their part, as did the passing of Friday's U.S. NFP data close to expectations. GBP/USD benefits from the weaker USD with negligible support from the landslide win for the Labour party in the UK election, which had been widely expected .
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