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Hedging a Trump victory with FX options

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-Hedging a Trump victory with FX options Repeats with no changes Oct 16 (Reuters) - With the U.S. election in just three weeks and former President Donald Trump regaining a lead in the polls, FX option dealers report increased demand for options to hedge the risk of a Trump victory. Societe Generale think AUD/USD would be the most at risk from a Trump win and in a recent client note, are highlighting three trades to hedge that risk.
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China's yuan firms after PBOC kicks off market support tools

CORRECTED-China's yuan firms after PBOC kicks off market support tools Corrects to delete "more interest rate cuts" in last paragraph as rates had already been cut, and changes "most of which are" to "which is" SHANGHAI, Oct 18 (Reuters) - China's yuan firmed on Friday against the U.S. dollar after the country's central bank kicked off two funding schemes to help lift the stock market.
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FX options wrap - USD gains and Trump trades are key drivers

BUZZ-FX options wrap - USD gains and Trump trades are key drivers FX option implied volatility remains broadly heavy amid the ongoing lack of FX realised volatility, but the impending U.S. election and the risk of an extended USD recovery maintain demand and premium for the 'Trump trade' . Overnight expiry EUR related implied volatility was the lowest for any ECB policy announcement in 2024 - consistent with the lack of actual volatility in its wake.
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TSMC steadies chip ship, ECB set to ease

MORNING BID AMERICAS-TSMC steadies chip ship, ECB set to ease A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan Tech-heavy stock markets are set to breathe a sigh of relief on Thursday as the world's largest chipmaker beat the street and eased gnawing doubts about semiconductor demand worldwide and jitters about the wider artificial intelligence theme.
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These FX options are becoming 'the Trump trade'

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-These FX options are becoming 'the Trump trade' Repeats with no changes Oct 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has regained his poll lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris with only three weeks to go before the U.S. election and it's fuelling demand for options to hedge the risk of a stronger USD rebound.
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China's yuan steady after housing policy announcement, eyes Q3 GDP

China's yuan steady after housing policy announcement, eyes Q3 GDP SHANGHAI, Oct 17 (Reuters) - China's yuan held steady against the U.S. dollar as reactions to the country's housing policy briefing were muted overall and as investors await China's economic activities data due on Friday. The dollar edged down on Thursday but still stood near 2-1/2-month highs on the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency.
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Dollar hovers near 11-week high, eyes on China property briefing

FOREX-Dollar hovers near 11-week high, eyes on China property briefing By Rae Wee SINGAPORE, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The dollar held near an 11-week high on Thursday as uncertainty over the upcoming U.S. election looms and as resilience in the U.S. economy added to bets the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive in easing rates versus its peers elsewhere.
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FX options wrap - Trump trade, ECB risk, revealing sales

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Trump trade, ECB risk, revealing sales Shorter dated expiry implied volatility in most of the major currency pairs remains under pressure and reflects the lack of current FX realised volatility. That's not expected to change much until the U.S. election, where implied volatility is higher and better supported. Overnight expiry implied volatility remains very low, even in EUR related pairings which now include Thursday's ECB policy announcement .
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These FX options are becoming 'the Trump trade'

BUZZ-COMMENT-These FX options are becoming 'the Trump trade' Oct 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has regained his poll lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris with only three weeks to go before the U.S. election and it's fuelling demand for options to hedge the risk of a stronger USD rebound. USD call options give holders the right to buy the USD at levels that are advantageous to the FX spot rate, for an upfront premium.
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China's policies bigger threat to yuan than Trump

BUZZ-COMMENT-China's policies bigger threat to yuan than Trump Oct 16 (Reuters) - Policies intended to boost China's ailing economy are a bigger threat to the yuan than the risk that Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election and sparks a trade war. While a trade war could hurt China's economy, Trump hasn't won yet, but the stimulus measures that China has already taken to support its economy are undermining its currency and may do more.
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Hedging a Trump victory with FX options

BUZZ-COMMENT-Hedging a Trump victory with FX options Oct 16 (Reuters) - With the U.S. election in just three weeks and former President Donald Trump regaining a lead in the polls, FX option dealers report increased demand for options to hedge the risk of a Trump victory. Societe Generale think AUD/USD would be the most at risk from a Trump win and in a recent client note, are highlighting three trades to hedge that risk.
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China's yuan edges up on hopes of more stimulus

China's yuan edges up on hopes of more stimulus By Summer Zhen HONG KONG, Oct 16 (Reuters) - China's yuan steadied against the dollar on Wednesday after slipping to one-month lows in early trade, led by stimulus hopes while focus also shifted to tariff risks posed by a possible return of the Trump presidency at next month's U.S. elections. China announced it will hold a press conference on Thursday to discuss promoting the "steady and healthy" development of the property sector, reigniting hopes
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FX options wrap - Pricing says FX is still going nowhere fast

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Pricing says FX is still going nowhere fast Another day of FX consolidation and limited volatility which keeps the pressure on FX option implied volatility . EUR/USD tested below 1.0900 but lacked the impetus needed to excite the FX options market. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday, so it would take a surprise hold to reignite related FX volatility.
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Tech, banks spark new US records as China relapses

MORNING BID AMERICAS-Tech, banks spark new US records as China relapses A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan The U.S. bond market returns from holiday to find Wall Street stocks soaring ever higher to new records , with Big Tech and Big Banks stirring earnings season excitement even as China's markets turn tail on demand worries and stimulus doubts.
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Explainer - Implied Volatility: a window into FX market sentiment

BUZZ-Explainer - Implied Volatility: a window into FX market sentiment Oct 15 (Reuters) - Implied volatility is a key component of an FX option premium, but what is it and how is it useful to the wider FX market? FX options are forward looking and often used to hedge or speculate on future scenarios in the FX spot market. The probability of any particular scenario happening is used to determine the option's cost - like an insurance premium.
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Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY?

BUZZ-COMMENT-Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY? Oct 15 (Reuters) - When comparing FX option volatility risk premiums with their fair value measures for expiry dates, which include the U.S. election on November 5, USD/JPY stands out as being potentially under-priced. FX volatility is a key, yet unknown parameter of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand in.
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Australian, NZ dollars turn lower as yuan skids to one-month trough

Australian, NZ dollars turn lower as yuan skids to one-month trough SYDNEY, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars struggled to make new ground on Tuesday even as Wall Street soared to a record close, with sentiment still being weighed down by a lack of stimulus measures from China after a slew of lacklustre data. The Aussie AUD=D3 fell 0.2% at $0.6712, having fallen 0.4% overnight to as far as $0.67, the lowest in a month.
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Dollar at over two-month high, yen near 150/dlr

FOREX-Dollar at over two-month high, yen near 150/dlr By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was perched at an over two-month high against major currencies on Tuesday, spurred by wagers the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest rate cuts in the near term, while the yen inched closer to the key 150 per dollar level. The euro EUR=EBS was steady in early Asian hours but close to its lowest level since Aug.
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US dollar climbs to 10-week peak; euro, China's yuan fall

FOREX-US dollar climbs to 10-week peak; euro, China's yuan fall Euro falls ahead of ECB meeting, rate cut expected China's fiscal stimulus briefing disappoints investors Bitcoin and ether hit two-week highs Adds new comment, FX table, graphic, updates prices By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and P.J. Huffstutter NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar touched a 1 0 -week high on Monday in thin trading, extending its weeks-long bullish run s parked by data showing a modestly slowing economy that l
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US dollar hits nine-week high; China yuan, euro down

FOREX-US dollar hits nine-week high; China yuan, euro down Recasts, adds new comment, FX table, updates prices; changes dateline, previous SINGAPORE/LONDON Euro falls ahead of ECB meeting, rate cut expected China's fiscal stimulus briefing disappoints investors Bitcoin and ether hit two-week highs By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Medha Singh NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The U.S.
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