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Notícias

FX options wrap - PCE risk, JPY 150, BoE Bets, euro low

BUZZ-FX options wrap - PCE risk, JPY 150, BoE Bets, euro low A busier week for FX with the closing of short JPY positions being the main driver before next week's central bank meetings . However, JPY demand and broader FX option implied volatility has peaked for now. U.S. PCE inflation data can offer more clues on next week's U.S. policy decision and the U.S.
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Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead July 25 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action and add to nearby support/resistance. There are some large strikes worth noting for Friday, July 26 , and for the week ahead. Stand-out EUR/USD strikes on Monday are at 1.0700-05 on 1.4 billion euros, 1.0800 on 610 million euros, 1.0825-35 on 1.4 billion euros and 1.0885-1.0900 on 1.6 billion euros.
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FX options wrap - JPY and CNH surge, central banks on radar

BUZZ-FX options wrap - JPY and CNH surge, central banks on radar The big movers in FX and options on Thursday are JPY and CNH, with risk aversion and the unwinding of large short positions the main drivers. USD/JPY extended its recent decline to test below 152.00, which saw 1-month implied volatility trade new highs since early May at 10.75 and remain firm amid the rebound to 154.00 after US GDP data.
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FX options wrap - JPY at the fore; here come the central banks

BUZZ-FX options wrap - JPY at the fore; here come the central banks Mild risk aversion underpinned the USD and provided an extra tailwind for a surging Japanese yen and its related FX option implied volatility on Wednesday. JPY short paring is driving the JPY surge to new highs against the USD since the early May intervention, with benchmark 1-month USD/JPY implied volatility following suit to new highs since May 3 at 10.6. One-month expiry risk reversals have also regained longer term highs for
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FX options wrap - Yuan bids, EUR outlook, JPY hedge, expiries

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Yuan bids, EUR outlook, JPY hedge, expiries There's been some demand for six-month expiry USD/CNH implied volatility in the low 5's - the date covers the U.S. election and China's yuan is the currency most likely to be affected by related trade policy. EUR/USD FX option implied volatility languishes at long-term lows and reflects the lack of actual/expected volatility .
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FX options wrap - U.S politics ignored, CB policy drives

BUZZ-FX options wrap - U.S politics ignored, CB policy drives Little reaction in the FX options market to news that U.S. President Joe Biden wont run for another term. If anything, volatility premiums around the U.S. election are marginally lower, but a broader lack of FX realised volatility is still weighing on option premium into the typical summer doldrums.
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FX options wrap - JPY aside, it's mostly the FX status quo

BUZZ-FX options wrap - JPY aside, it's mostly the FX status quo Risk aversion reared its head to underpin near-dated G10 FX option implied volatility this week, with USD/JPY at the fore amid its wider intraday ranges/losses. However, JPY aside, FX realised volatility remains limited and that's keeping implied volatility near long-term lows in the major pairings.
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Swiss franc's reaction function tees up SNB Sept cut

BUZZ-COMMENT-Swiss franc's reaction function tees up SNB Sept cut July 19 (Reuters) - The probability of the Swiss National Bank delivering a third consecutive interest rate cut in September has risen on the back of the safe-haven franc's reaction to recent events. Recoiling risk appetite prompted franc-funded carry trade unwinds this week, with the flow helping deflate USD/CHF to an EBS low of 0.8820 - its lowest level since the SNB's June 20 rate cut, and EUR/CHF to a July EBS low of 0.9643. A
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Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead July 19 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action and add to nearby support/resistance. There are some large strikes worth noting for Friday, July 19 , and for the week ahead. EUR/USD strike expiries are on Monday at 1.0845-50 on 1.1 billion euros, 1.0950 on 1 billion euros and 1.0975-80 on 1.5 billion euros.
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The critical importance of FX option strike expiries

BUZZ-COMMENT-The critical importance of FX option strike expiries July 19 (Reuters) - While it's not an exact science, larger impending FX option strikes can often have an effect on the FX spot market as their expiries draw closer. Here's why. While there are many types of traders and investors influencing the FX markets, perhaps the most important when it comes to options are the many institutions that supply and manage liquidity.
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Wait-and-see ECB boosts euro comeback as King Dollar's crown slips

RPT-ANALYSIS-Wait-and-see ECB boosts euro comeback as King Dollar's crown slips Repeats from Thursday with no changes to text ECB holds rate steady after June rate cut Euro sticks near four-month highs vs dollar Investors say French fiscal showdown remains a risk By Naomi Rovnick and Dhara Ranasinghe LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - Traders on Thursday kept the euro on course for a strong comeback as prospects for the European Central Bank turning cautious after an expected second rate cut in Septemb
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Wait-and-see ECB boosts euro comeback as King Dollar's crown slips

RPT-ANALYSIS-Wait-and-see ECB boosts euro comeback as King Dollar's crown slips Repeats from Thursday with no changes to text ECB holds rate steady after June rate cut Euro sticks near four-month highs vs dollar Investors say French fiscal showdown remains a risk By Naomi Rovnick and Dhara Ranasinghe LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - Traders on Thursday kept the euro on course for a strong comeback as prospects for the European Central Bank turning cautious after an expected second rate cut in Septemb
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Wait-and-see ECB boosts euro comeback as King Dollar's crown slips

REFILE-ANALYSIS-Wait-and-see ECB boosts euro comeback as King Dollar's crown slips Corrects spelling of PIMCO in paragraph 25 ECB holds rate steady after June rate cut Euro sticks near four-month highs vs dollar Investors say French fiscal showdown remains a risk By Naomi Rovnick and Dhara Ranasinghe LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - Traders on Thursday kept the euro on course for a strong comeback as prospects for the European Central Bank turning cautious after an expected second rate cut in Septemb
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FX options wrap - GBP target, EUR/USD clues, JPY call demand

BUZZ-FX options wrap - GBP target, EUR/USD clues, JPY call demand After increasing earlier in the week, broader G10 FX option implied volatility looks to have peaked for now, even JPY-related pairings, which spiked significantly higher as USD/JPY fell on Wednesday. Bank of Japan balance sheet data suggests Wednesday's USD/JPY drop wasn't intervention .
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FX options wrap - Intervention? USD puts, ECB risk, vol gains

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Intervention? USD puts, ECB risk, vol gains The Japanese yen was at the fore again on Wednesday amid another suspected bout of intervention , although it may have just been broad USD weakness and thin liquidity tripping stops. Implied volatility was higher across the board but it was JPY pairings which posted the biggest gains .
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Thursday's ECB is not without FX risk - options show

BUZZ-COMMENT-Thursday's ECB is not without FX risk - options show July 17 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to adjust policy before September, so Thursday's announcement shouldn't have any real effect on FX, but option markets aren't ruling out some related FX volatility. Implied volatility substitutes actual volatility, which is a key, yet unknown parameter of an FX option premium, so any changes are indicative of a shift in actual volatility, or expectations of a shif
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FX options wrap - NZ tops UK CPI risk; Cheap; Fund favourites

BUZZ-FX options wrap - NZ tops UK CPI risk; Cheap; Fund favourites Overnight option expiry now includes CPI data that could prove key for impending rate decisions for New Zealand and the UK, with NZD demanding much more additional volatility risk premium than GBP . Implied volatility remains close to long term lows in many currency pairs and expiry dates and reflects the lack of realised volatility - current and expected.
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Stocks, FX flat with China's 'Third Plenum', possible Trump 2.0 in focus

EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks, FX flat with China's 'Third Plenum', possible Trump 2.0 in focus Updated at 0910 GMT S&P to wait until August to make key Kenya rating call Hungary central banker says July rate cut an "open question" Thailand approves $2.8 bln soft loan scheme for commercial banks S.Africa to cut interest rates in September, Poll shows Stocks off 0.2%, FX flat By Johann M Cherian July 16 (Reuters) - Most emerging markets stocks and currencies were flat to slightly lower on Tuesday, as i
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FX options wrap - billions, value, GBP call, intervention, ZAR

BUZZ-FX options wrap - billions, value, GBP call, intervention, ZAR Trader option data from DTCC shows 12.5 billion euros of EUR/USD FX options , most around 1.0900, expiring on Monday and Tuesday, so no surprise to see a limited EUR/USD spot range around this level. Quite a busy data week which includes a European central bank policy announcement could increase volatility and add value to shorter-dated expiry EUR/USD options , where 1-week expiry implied volatility is currently trading lows sin
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Value in EUR/USD options without the currency risk

BUZZ-COMMENT-Value in EUR/USD options without the currency risk July 15 (Reuters) - FX options can be utilized to trade FX volatility without direct exposure to currency risk. With the current low pricing of EUR/USD options, there might be an opportunity to find value during this busy data week, which also includes the European Central Bank policy announcement .
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