Forint gains ground, zloty firm as Polish rates on hold
PRAGUE, July 4 (Reuters) -The zloty held firm on the strong side of 4.30 to the euro on Thursday with markets expecting further confirmation that Polish interest rates are unlikely to be cut this year, while a softer dollar gave some respite to central Europe's currencies.
Hungary's forint led the gains, rising for a second straight session, while the Czech crown steadied after a fall earlier this week.
Weaker U.S. data raised the odds of a September interest rate by the Federal Reserve, weighing on the dollar, which gave some support to central European assets.
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold for a ninth straight month on Wednesday - after slight easing of policy last year - keeping the main rate at 5.75% in anticipation of an acceleration in inflation in the months ahead.
Polish Governor Adam Glapinski is due to address a news conference later on Thursday, with expectations he will repeat that the chance of a rate cut this year is small.
"We expect that not much will change here and we will hear confirmation that rate cuts are unlikely this year," ING said in a note.
"If the NBP delivers a traditional hawkish message, PLN should benefit the most. EUR/PLN already fell below 4.300 yesterday as we expected, and some paying flow in the rates market could support EUR/PLN towards 4.28."
The zloty EURPLN= traded at 4.2965, down less than 0.1% on the day.
The forint EURHUF=, which has struggled to get some distance from the psychological 400 per euro level it weakened to in the past month, added 0.3% to 393.50 to the euro.
"We expect a calm day today, with the U.S. markets closed for holiday. The forint will firm a little bit lacking news, but we are eyeing tomorrow's retail and industry output and trade balance data," a local trader said.
Elsewhere, the crown EURCZK= inched 0.1% lower to 25.161 per euro and was off a low of 25.21 hit this week, while Romania's leu EURRON= was steady at 4.9771 to the euro.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1124 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.1610 | 25.1460 | -0.06% | -1.83% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 393.5500 | 394.6500 | +0.28% | -2.63% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2965 | 4.2935 | -0.07% | +1.12% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9771 | 4.9769 | -0.00% | -0.06% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0100 | 117.0500 | +0.03% | +0.20% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1570.23 | 1567.2200 | +0.19% | +11.05% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 71847.27 | 71738.76 | +0.15% | +18.52% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2538.08 | 2543.64 | -0.22% | +8.33% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 18262.58 | 18257.20 | +0.03% | +18.81% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.9600 | -0.0280 | +103bps | -4bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.9530 | -0.0280 | +137bps | -5bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.1430 | -0.0270 | +157bps | -5bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.2120 | 0.0930 | +228bps | +8bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.6220 | -0.0110 | +304bps | -3bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.7730 | -0.0060 | +320bps | -3bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.32 | 4.08 | 3.88 | 4.69 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 7.12 | 6.89 | 6.61 | 6.88 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.79 | 5.75 | 5.49 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** | ||||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest and Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk in Warsaw; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala
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