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Comments & Briefs

XM Research - 1 hour ago

Quick Brief – BoE cuts rates for the second time in 4 years

BoE lowers rates to 4.75% as inflation drops to 1.7%Pound holds in a range in short-termAt its meeting today, the Bank of England (BoE) lowered its main interest ratesby 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75% from 5.00%, following a hold in September and a quarter-point cut in August. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to reduce interest rates versus the anticipated 7-2 majority indicated in a Reuters poll and the split vote of 5-4 in August, suggesting a slight dovish tilt.The economic dat
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XM Research - 6 hours ago

Daily Comment – Dollar pauses rally ahead of Fed, BoE meets as well

Dollar traders take a breather as Fed decision loomsFocus to fall on how likely a pause is in coming monthsBoE expected to cut, could take the sidelines in DecemberWall Street continues to celebrate Trump’s winWill the US election outcome impact Fed policy?After hitting a four-month high on the heels of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the dollar is pulling back today, as traders may have decided to lock some profits after the sharp rally and ahead of the Fed decision later today.Wi
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XM Research - 1 day ago

Quick Brief – What’s next for the markets after Trump’s victory?

Trump is back in the White House; dollar becomes king againSelection of cabinet members is the next taskGold is the worst performer; melts below $2,700 It's no longer in question, Donald Trump made a remarkable comeback to the White House with 279 electoral seats at the time of writing compared to Kamala Harris’ of 224 despite 34 felony count convictions, two assassination attempts, and a stormy campaign battle with Kamala Harris. This is not the only victory for Trump.
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XM Research - 1 day ago

Daily Comment – Dollar and stocks surge on Trump victory bets

Donald Trump secures key battleground statesDollar rallies as his policies are seen as inflationaryStocks celebrate prospect of tax cuts and deregulationBitcoin hits fresh record high, oil retreatsTrump knocks the White House doorThe dollar skyrocketed during the Asian session today, and it appears to be headed for its biggest one-day gain since March 2020.Following the closing of the election ballots in the US, early signs that former president Donald Trump is likely to return to the White Hous
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XM Research - 2 days ago

Quick Brief – ISM services PMI comes in favor of Biden’s era

ISM non-mfg. accelerates in October, employment index strengthens tooInvestors remain confident about a 25bps rate cut this week; dollar barely rises The ISM non-manufacturing PMI index came in favor of Biden’s administration on Tuesday, arriving stronger than expected as US voters headed to the polls to elect the next President.The survey for October showed surprisingly increased business activity for the second consecutive month, with the index rising to 56.0 – the highest in more than tw
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XM Research - 2 days ago

Daily Comment – Markets hold their breath as America votes

US presidential election in the spotlightMarkets in anticipation mode as volatility is elevatedDollar, equities and gold remain under pressureAussie fails to materially benefit from RBA’s hawkishnessThe long wait is finally overThe countdown for the biggest event of 2024 is finally over as in a few hours around 80 million registered voters will cast their vote across the United States.
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar gaps down as Trump seems to be losing Iowa

Nonfarm payrolls slow to the smallest gain since Dec 2020Dollar opens Monday with negative gap on US election pollWhat will Fed officials decide just after the election?RBA gets the ball rolling tonight; expected to stand patDollar brushes off very weak nonfarm payrollsThe dollar finished Friday’s session up against most of its major peers, despite nonfarm payrolls slowing to 12k last month, the smallest gain since December 2020.Despite the surprisingly low number, the market brushed off the r
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Daily Comment – Volatility returns with a vengeance ahead of key US events

Month-end pushes stock indices and gold in the redMarket angst could continue going into Tuesday’s US electionFocus today is on the US labour market dataDollar fails to benefit against the euro and the yenMonth-end pushes stock indices in the redThe recent, relatively quiet, market sessions were interrupted yesterday, with a strong correction recorded in both equities and gold.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Quick Brief – PCE inflation adds to strong US data run ahead of Fed decision

Core PCE price index stays unchanged at 2.7% y/yPersonal consumption accelerates to 0.5% m/mBut US dollar stays on the backfoot Inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index fell to 2.1% y/y in September, but the underlying measure was unchanged at 2.7% y/y. The decline in the headline figure was in line with expectations but core PCE was forecast to have moderated to 2.6% y/y.The data underscores worries that underlying price pressures are proving to be stick
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Quick Brief - Oil prices rebound after unexpected drop in gasoline stockpiles

US gasoline stockpiles drop to a two-year lowOPEC+ could delay a planned production increaseChinese manufacturing PMI also a helping handOil prices rebounded on Thursday, perhaps buoyed by demand optimism in the US after gasoline stockpiles dropped unexpectedly to a two-year low last week, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).What may have also encouraged investors to buy more oil were reports that OPEC and its major allies, known as the OPEC+ group, could delay a planned pro
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Dollar slips amid stronger yen and euro, data barrage continues

Yen up after Bank of Japan sounds more hawkish than expectedEuro climbs on stronger German GDP and inflationDollar choppy after mixed US data, focus turns to PCE inflationStocks struggle on earnings outlook worriesYen gets unexpected boostThe yen firmed up on Thursday after the Bank of Japan struck a somewhat more hawkish-than-expected tone as it kept rates on hold but signalled it remains on track to raise rates further.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Quick Brief - US Q3 GDP disappoints but ADP employment beat lifts dollar

US economy grows by 2.8% in Q3 versus 3.0% expectedADP employment points to strong month for jobs in OctoberUS dollar heads north but more tests on the wayThe US GDP report kicked off the run of crucial data for the next three days, paving the way for next week’s policy meeting by the Federal Reserve. GDP growth came in slightly below expectations in the third quarter, printing at 2.8% against forecasts of 3.0%.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Quick Brief – Eurozone GDP exceeds expectations

Eurozone GDP expands by 0.4%Germany posts 0.2% growthEuro/dollar shows signs of upside recoveryThe Eurozone economy expanded more rapidly than anticipated in the previous quarter; however, the outlook remains subdued due to the potential for excessive tariffs from a Trump presidency and the escalation of trade tensions with China.The Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in Q3, marking the highest growth rate in two years, subsequent to a 0.2% increase in Q2 and surpassing projections of 0.2%.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Wall Street lifted by earnings as election jitters boost gold

US dollar and gold remain elevated as markets bet on Trump winBut Nasdaq hits record amid optimism about tech earningsSlew of data awaited out of the US and Eurozone, UK budget also eyedUS election angst still driving sentiment  Growing anxiety about the US presidential election continued to set the market mood on Wednesday, with Republican candidate Donald Trump extending his gains in the polls.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Dollar maintains gains amidst fragile market conditions

Markets prepare for a 10-day long rollercoaster rideFocus today on earnings but key US data in sightGold and bitcoin rally, oil suffers, and 10-year US yield reaches 4.3%Yen suffering might linger as party negotiations continueImportant data week, Alphabet reports todayMarket participants are gradually preparing for an action-packed week, with Friday’s US jobs report being the key event, that also includes some major earnings releases.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Oil slumps after Israel’s attack; yen slips on Japan election shock

Oil and gold slide as Israel shows restraint in retaliatory strike on IranYen under pressure after LDP party loses majority in snap electionTrump poll boost keeps dollar firm as crucial US data week awaitsIsrael strikes back at Iran, but relief on measured attackOil prices tumbled as trading got underway on Monday, opening with a gap down as investors responded to Israel’s retaliatory attack against Iran on Saturday.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Tensions remain high in equities

Strong US data is not welcomed by equitiesBusy calendar today but markets are already focusing on next weekJapan holds election on Sunday; the outcome could surpriseBoJ and yen could suffer from a hung parliament Data reconfirm the strength of the US economyYesterday’s PMI surveys release was a stark reminder that the US presidential election is not the sole market-moving factor.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Stocks under pressure amid US election jitters, dollar extends gains

Reduced Fed rate cut bets and growing odds of a Trump win push up yieldsWall Street slips; gold also takes a hit, but only temporarilyDollar climbs to 3-month high, yen and euro struggleWall Street headed for weekly lossesThe rally on Wall Street came to an abrupt end this week as uncertainty about the looming US presidential election as well as about the pace of Fed rate cuts undermined confidence in risk assets.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Quick Brief – BoC delivers rate cut, points to further easing

BoC cuts rates by 50bps, keeps door open to further movesMarket fully prices in a 25bps rate cut in DecemberLoonie remains under pressure against the dollarThe Bank of Canada confirmed market expectations by delivering a 50bps rate cut at today’s meeting. Despite certain market participants pointing to a smaller move on the back of decent jobs and growth figures, the recent weak inflation report and the bearish move in oil seem to have tipped the scale in favour of a more aggressive rate cut.T
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XM Research - 2 weeks agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Dollar, gold and US yields continue to rise

Euro is under pressure again as ECB dovish commentary lingersGold makes a new all-time high despite the 10-year US yield riseUS equities trade with low conviction ahead of Tesla earningsBoC to announce another rate cut, loonie could sufferEuro remains on the back footThe euro is desperately trying to show some signs of life and recover against both the US dollar and the pound.
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