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Comments & Briefs

Analysis - 20 hours ago

Daily Comment – Wall Street loses more steam as Powell not in a hurry to cut rates

US stocks set for weekly loss as Powell adds to Fed’s hawkish soundbiteBut dollar unable to hit fresh highs; US retail sales eyed nextYen firms after verbal intervention; euro also reboundsDecember cut in doubt after Powell commentsFed rate cut expectations were dramatically pared back on Thursday after Fed chief, Jerome Powell, rounded up the week’s hawkish rhetoric by adding to the sense of caution about the pace of easing.
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Analysis - 2 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar wavers on US CPI, surges on hawkish Fed remarks

US CPI meets expectations, bolstering rate cut hopesBut Fed hawks spoil the mood as dollar hits one-year highGold continues to bleed even as stocks stumble Dollar ascends as Fed wary after CPI reportThe US dollar’s post-election surge shows no sign of ending as it advanced to one-year highs against a basket of currencies on Thursday, causing fresh pain for its rivals.
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Analysis - 3 days ago

Quick Brief – US CPI ticks higher in October as expected, dollar dips slightly

Headline CPI edges up to 2.6% from 2.4%; Core CPI unchanged at 3.3%But rate cut bets for December strengthen CPI inflation in the United States rose from 2.4% in September to 2.6% y/y in October, while core CPI that excludes food and energy prices remained unchanged at 3.3% y/y. Both were in line with expectations, offering some relief to investors who were spooked by hawkish Fed remarks on Tuesday.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned that an upside surprise in inflation before the De
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Analysis - 3 days ago

Daily Comment – US CPI report could reverse the post-election euphoria

Markets take a breather as Trump assembles his teamFocus turns today to US inflation and FedspeakGermany prepares for snap election, euro on the back footYen underperformance continues, intervention talk resurfacesMusk joins Trump’s team, Germany sets election datePresident-elect Trump is gradually assembling his cabinet, with the market anticipating the most crucial appointment, the Treasury Secretary.
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Analysis - 3 days ago

Quick Brief – Are oil prices headed for September’s lows?

Oil prices tumble to a two-week low after Trump’s victoryStronger dollar on Fed pause bets weighTariffs on Chinese goods and demand concerns also driversOil prices fell sharply lately, driven by a cocktail of developments, including a stronger dollar following Donald Trump’s election as the 47th US president, concerns about what that presidency means for China, the world’s largest oil consumer, disappointment about China’s efforts to stimulate the economy, and OPEC’s downside revision
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Analysis - 4 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar extends gains, bitcoin soars but stocks lose momentum

Tariff fears weigh on euro and other majors, dollar continues to climbBitcoin and Wall Street hit new records but broader equities stumble   Gold unable to get a boost from Trump picking hawks for this team   Trump trade still powering the marketsSpeculation about the expected impact of Donald Trump’s policies continues to dominate the market theme, as investors await details about who will be in Trump’s cabinet.
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Analysis - 5 days ago

Daily Comment – Positive sentiment lingers despite mixed newsflow

Markets continue to dance to the tune of Trump’s winGold and oil suffer, while bitcoin and equities rallyMinority government in Japan, BoJ mini-minutes unsurprisingEuro under pressure as Germany gets closer to snap electionTrump prepares to take overThe markets continue to digest Trump’s victory and last Thursday's dovish Fed rate cut, with most market participants now speculating on the course of action of the new administration as the president-elect is assembling his cabinet. In this
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Analysis - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Fed delivers rate cut, stocks rally but dollar not impressed

Fed cuts rates and keeps door open to a December movePowell appears confident about the inflation outlookEquities’ euphoria continues, strongest weekly rally of 2024Yen manages to gain against the US dollarThe Fed announces a rate cutWith the markets still digesting Trump’s win, the Fed announced the much-anticipated rate cut. Unswayed by concerns that Trump’s second term might lead to extreme protectionism and thus keep inflation high, the FOMC cut rates by 25bps, with Chairman Powell app
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Analysis - 1 week ago

Quick Brief – BoE cuts rates for the second time in 4 years

BoE lowers rates to 4.75% as inflation drops to 1.7%Pound holds in a range in short-termAt its meeting today, the Bank of England (BoE) lowered its main interest ratesby 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75% from 5.00%, following a hold in September and a quarter-point cut in August. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to reduce interest rates versus the anticipated 7-2 majority indicated in a Reuters poll and the split vote of 5-4 in August, suggesting a slight dovish tilt.The economic dat
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Analysis - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Dollar pauses rally ahead of Fed, BoE meets as well

Dollar traders take a breather as Fed decision loomsFocus to fall on how likely a pause is in coming monthsBoE expected to cut, could take the sidelines in DecemberWall Street continues to celebrate Trump’s winWill the US election outcome impact Fed policy?After hitting a four-month high on the heels of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the dollar is pulling back today, as traders may have decided to lock some profits after the sharp rally and ahead of the Fed decision later today.Wi
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Analysis - 1 week ago

Quick Brief – What’s next for the markets after Trump’s victory?

Trump is back in the White House; dollar becomes king againSelection of cabinet members is the next taskGold is the worst performer; melts below $2,700 It's no longer in question, Donald Trump made a remarkable comeback to the White House with 279 electoral seats at the time of writing compared to Kamala Harris’ of 224 despite 34 felony count convictions, two assassination attempts, and a stormy campaign battle with Kamala Harris. This is not the only victory for Trump.
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Analysis - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Dollar and stocks surge on Trump victory bets

Donald Trump secures key battleground statesDollar rallies as his policies are seen as inflationaryStocks celebrate prospect of tax cuts and deregulationBitcoin hits fresh record high, oil retreatsTrump knocks the White House doorThe dollar skyrocketed during the Asian session today, and it appears to be headed for its biggest one-day gain since March 2020.Following the closing of the election ballots in the US, early signs that former president Donald Trump is likely to return to the White Hous
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Quick Brief – ISM services PMI comes in favor of Biden’s era

ISM non-mfg. accelerates in October, employment index strengthens tooInvestors remain confident about a 25bps rate cut this week; dollar barely rises The ISM non-manufacturing PMI index came in favor of Biden’s administration on Tuesday, arriving stronger than expected as US voters headed to the polls to elect the next President.The survey for October showed surprisingly increased business activity for the second consecutive month, with the index rising to 56.0 – the highest in more than tw
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Markets hold their breath as America votes

US presidential election in the spotlightMarkets in anticipation mode as volatility is elevatedDollar, equities and gold remain under pressureAussie fails to materially benefit from RBA’s hawkishnessThe long wait is finally overThe countdown for the biggest event of 2024 is finally over as in a few hours around 80 million registered voters will cast their vote across the United States.
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Dollar gaps down as Trump seems to be losing Iowa

Nonfarm payrolls slow to the smallest gain since Dec 2020Dollar opens Monday with negative gap on US election pollWhat will Fed officials decide just after the election?RBA gets the ball rolling tonight; expected to stand patDollar brushes off very weak nonfarm payrollsThe dollar finished Friday’s session up against most of its major peers, despite nonfarm payrolls slowing to 12k last month, the smallest gain since December 2020.Despite the surprisingly low number, the market brushed off the r
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Volatility returns with a vengeance ahead of key US events

Month-end pushes stock indices and gold in the redMarket angst could continue going into Tuesday’s US electionFocus today is on the US labour market dataDollar fails to benefit against the euro and the yenMonth-end pushes stock indices in the redThe recent, relatively quiet, market sessions were interrupted yesterday, with a strong correction recorded in both equities and gold.
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Quick Brief – PCE inflation adds to strong US data run ahead of Fed decision

Core PCE price index stays unchanged at 2.7% y/yPersonal consumption accelerates to 0.5% m/mBut US dollar stays on the backfoot Inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index fell to 2.1% y/y in September, but the underlying measure was unchanged at 2.7% y/y. The decline in the headline figure was in line with expectations but core PCE was forecast to have moderated to 2.6% y/y.The data underscores worries that underlying price pressures are proving to be stick
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Quick Brief - Oil prices rebound after unexpected drop in gasoline stockpiles

US gasoline stockpiles drop to a two-year lowOPEC+ could delay a planned production increaseChinese manufacturing PMI also a helping handOil prices rebounded on Thursday, perhaps buoyed by demand optimism in the US after gasoline stockpiles dropped unexpectedly to a two-year low last week, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).What may have also encouraged investors to buy more oil were reports that OPEC and its major allies, known as the OPEC+ group, could delay a planned pro
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Dollar slips amid stronger yen and euro, data barrage continues

Yen up after Bank of Japan sounds more hawkish than expectedEuro climbs on stronger German GDP and inflationDollar choppy after mixed US data, focus turns to PCE inflationStocks struggle on earnings outlook worriesYen gets unexpected boostThe yen firmed up on Thursday after the Bank of Japan struck a somewhat more hawkish-than-expected tone as it kept rates on hold but signalled it remains on track to raise rates further.
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Quick Brief - US Q3 GDP disappoints but ADP employment beat lifts dollar

US economy grows by 2.8% in Q3 versus 3.0% expectedADP employment points to strong month for jobs in OctoberUS dollar heads north but more tests on the wayThe US GDP report kicked off the run of crucial data for the next three days, paving the way for next week’s policy meeting by the Federal Reserve. GDP growth came in slightly below expectations in the third quarter, printing at 2.8% against forecasts of 3.0%.
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