Australia lifts its wheat production forecast by 2.7 mln tons
CANBERRA, Sept 3 (Reuters) -Australia should produce 31.8 million metric tons of wheat in its upcoming harvest, the government said on Tuesday, raising its forecast by 2.7 million tons following rain in key cropping regions.
Australia is the world's third-biggest wheat exporter and a bigger harvest will increase global supply at a time when prices are near four-year lows. Wv1 GRA/
The government also said Australia would produce about 700,000 tons more barley and 100,000 tons more canola than it thought three months ago.
"Winter crop production is forecast to rise to near-record levels in New South Wales and Queensland," the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), part of the agriculture ministry, said in a quarterly report.
Improved conditions in Western Australia meant above-average production there but dry weather in South Australia and Victoria would cause below-average yields in those states, it said.
The ABARES forecast for wheat is slightly larger than analysts' predictions and implies production around 20% above both last season's crop and the 10-year average.
Australia is likely to produce 12.2 million tons of barley in the 2024/25 season, 13% more than in 2023/24 and 7% above the 10-year average, and 5.5 million tons of canola, 8%less than last season but 22% above the 10-year average, ABARES said.
Three months ago, ABARES forecast production in 2024/25 of 29.1 million tons of wheat, 11.5 million tons of barley and 5.4 million tons of canola.
However, ABARES said wheat exports would likely fall to 20.9 million tons in 2024/25, down 7% from 2023–24 but 10% above the 10-year average, because stockpiles from the record harvests of the early 2020s had been drawn down.
In other crops, chickpea production is on track to nearly triple to 1.3 million tons due to enthusiastic planting after top consumer India suspended import tariffs.
Sorghum production is set to rise but cotton and rice production to shrink in the 2024/25 season, ABARES said.
Australian wheat production https://tmsnrt.rs/4cOeuLK
Australian root zone soil moisture https://tmsnrt.rs/47hDbze
Reporting by Peter Hobson; Editing by Sonali Paul
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