Technical Analysis – Gold rallies ahead of key US events
- Gold is trading higher again today
- Volatility is high ahead of key US data prints
- Momentum indicators remain bullish
Gold is trading higher again today, recording a new all-time high, following a very strong performance on Tuesday. This move could be attributed to the dollar being slightly on the back foot today, but, most likely, the incoming key US data releases and the market’s angst regarding next week’s events are the main reasons for the latest upleg. In addition, with the developments in the Middle East generating headlines, volatility in gold is expected to remain elevated.
In the meantime, the momentum indicators are bullish. The RSI is trading comfortably above its midpoint and is trying to record a higher high. Similarly, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is edging higher, well above its 25 midpoint, confirming the bullish trend dictating gold’s price action. More importantly, the stochastic oscillator is hovering inside its overbought territory (OB) and showing little appetite, at this stage, for a downside move. Should it eventually manage to break below its OB, it could be seen as a strong bearish signal.
If the bulls remain confident, they could keep pushing gold higher, recording new all-time highs on a daily basis. The next target level is at 2,800, but, considering the current demand for this precious metal, next week’s events could allow the bulls to record an even more forceful rally.
On the flip side, the bears are keen for an overdue correction. They could lead gold lower towards the October 23, 2024 high at 2,758 with the first key support area coming at 2,685, where the September 26, 2024 high and the August 5, 2024 ascending trendline currently cross. Even lower, the 50-day SMA at 2,626 could be the last obstacle before the bears are able test the support set by the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of March 8, 2022 – September 28, 2022 downtrend at 2,601.
To sum up, gold is recording another upleg as market angst about the next big US events is keeping demand strong for this safe haven asset.
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