Equities volatility jumps as sentiment turns negative – Volatility Watch
Euro/dollar volatility remains low as market digests US data prints
Volatility in commodities remains low apart from oil
Stock indices and bitcoin experience much higher volatility
Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is digesting last week’s US labour market data and preparing for Wednesday’s CPI report, which could play a role in determining the size of the imminent Fed rate cut. On the other hand, yen pairs are experiencing higher volatility as the yen continues to make gains against key currencies on the back of improved data and sizeable chances for another BoJ rate hike.
In the meantime, volatility in both gold and silver remains very low despite the Chinese economic data reinforcing fears for a significant global slowdown, and both the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas conflicts generating headlines. On the contrary, volatility of oil prices has jumped the higher level of the past 30 days as the demand-supply balance continues to be negative despite the OPEC+ announcement for a postponement of the expected increase in production quotas from October.
The recent poor performance of stock indices has pushed volatility much higher as equity investors feel less confident about the short-term outlook. Interestingly, the German DAX index is experiencing the highest volatility of the past month as data remains weak and the overall sentiment remains negative following the recent disastrous regional election results for the governing coalition.
Finally, bitcoin has been under severe price pressure lately with volatility edging aggressively higher.
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