Can gold prices surge to new all-time highs by year end?
Gold increases 21% so far this year
US data and geopolitical tensions are driving gold
Bigger picture remains strongly positive
Gold has been performing remarkably well so far this year, with a gain of 21% and a record high of $2,531 on August 20. The impending release of US economic data, increased geopolitical tensions, and hints of nearing rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are the main driving forces behind this rise. When interest rates are low, noninterest-bearing gold is generally more appealing to investors.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Goldvsothers.png)
Gold prices have been fluctuating within a restricted range over the last few days. Investors are primarily anticipating the first interest rate cut on September 18, with markets fully pricing in a 25-basis point reduction. This had contributed to the subdued volatility until worries about a slowdown in the US prompted investors to price in around a 40% probability of a larger 50-bps cut. Nevertheless, volatility might remain somewhat muted for bullion until investors can determine the Fed's potential future course.
Gold gains support from a dovish PowellFed Chair Powell's recent speech at the Jackson Hole symposium has had a significant impact on the recent increase in gold prices. Powell suggested that the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates in the near future due to indications of a weakening labor market. This dovish posture has resulted in a decrease in US government bond yields, which has increased the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Fed-funds-rate.png)
The expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in late 2024 could devalue the US dollar, thereby increasing the appeal of gold. But the previous metal is also benefiting from the uncertainty about the economic outlook. Although inflation is slowing down, it is still a worry for Fed policymakers. Moreover, economic data, including GDP growth and job numbers, are presenting conflicting signals, adding to gold’s appeal as a steady investment.
Geopolitical tensionsAlong with the Fed's change in policy, rising global tensions, especially in the Middle East, have also helped push gold prices up. The ongoing conflicts have made things less certain, which is why investors are buying safe assets like gold. Important geopolitical factors, such as the deteriorating situation between Israel and Hezbollah and the increased likelihood of a larger regional war, have led investors to seek safety in gold as the world becomes less stable.
On Monday, President Joe Biden claimed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not acting sufficiently to negotiate a deal for the release of hostages kept in Gaza by Hamas, and that the US was almost ready to offer a last offer to negotiators working on a hostage and peace accord.
China plays crucial role on precious metalThe Chinese economy has had a major impact on the price of gold in 2024. The People's Bank of China resumed gold buying after a temporary break, greatly boosting gold demand. The Chinese government, as well as the public, are looking to gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty due to factors including the yuan's depreciation and persistent problems in the real estate sector.
The country's desire to diversify its currency portfolio and protect itself from geopolitical uncertainties has intensified its gold purchases. As a result, China's moves have been crucial in propelling gold prices around the world to record highs, and experts expect that this trend will likely continue all year.
Technical picture remains bullishDespite the latest pullback over the last few days, the precious metal remains strongly positive above the long-term ascending trend line. A rebound on the latter line may drive the market again towards the record peak of $2,531.66 before testing the next round numbers, such as $2,600 and $2,700. The downward wave from $2,070 to $1,616 has drawn the Fibonacci extension mark of $2,800, which appears to be a challenging level.
Alternatively, a drop beneath the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,240 could switch the outlook to bearish.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GOLDDaily-1024x559.png)
Aloqador aktivlar
Eng oxirgi yangiliklar
Javobgarlikdan voz kechish: XM Group korxonalari har biri faqat ijro xizmatlarini koʻrsatadi va onlayn savdo platformamizdan foydalanish huquqini beradi, bu odamga veb-saytda yoki veb-sayt orqali mavjud boʻlgan kontentni koʻrish va/yoki undan foydalanishga ruxsat beradi hamda uni oʻzgartirishga moʻljallanmagan va uni oʻzgartirmaydi yoki kengaytirmaydi. Bunday kirish va foydalanish huquqi doimo quyidagilarga boʻysunadi: (i) Shartlar va qoidalar; (ii) Risklar haqida ogohlantirish; va (iii) Javobgarlikni toʻliq rad etish. Shuning uchun bunday kontent umumiy maʼlumot sifatida taqdim etiladi. Xususan, shuni esda tutingki, bizning onlayn savdo platformamiz mazmuni moliyaviy bozorlarda biror bitimni amalga oshirishga oid maslahat yoki taklif emas. Har qanday moliyaviy bozorda savdo qilish sizning kapitalingiz uchun jiddiy risk darajasini oʻz ichiga oladi.
Onlayn savdo platformamizda chop etilgan barcha materiallar faqat taʼlim/axborot maqsadlari uchun moʻljallangan va unda moliyaviy, investitsiya soligʻi yoki savdo maslahatlari va tavsiyalar; yoki bizning savdo narxlarimizning qaydlari; yoki har qanday moliyaviy vositalar bilan bitim tuzish maslahati yoki taklifi; yoki sizga kerak boʻlmagan moliyaviy reklama aksiyalari hisoblanmaydi
Har qanday uchinchi tomon kontenti, shuningdek XM tomonidan tayyorlangan kontent, masalan: fikrlar, yangiliklar, tadqiqotlar, tahlillar, narxlar va boshqa maʼlumotlar yoki bu veb-saytda joylashgan uchinchi tomon saytlariga havolalar umumiy bozor sharhi sifatida "boricha" taqdim etiladi va investitsiya maslahatini tashkil etmaydi. Har qanday kontent investitsiya tadqiqoti sifatida talqin qilinsa, siz bunday kontentni investitsiya tadqiqotlarining mustaqilligini ragʻbatlantirish uchun moʻljallangan qonun talablariga muvofiq moʻljallanmagan va tayyorlanmaganligini eʼtiborga olishingiz va qabul qilishingiz kerak, shuning uchun unga tegishli qonunlar va qoidalarga muvofiq marketing kommunikatsiyasi sifatida qaraladi. Mustaqil boʻlmagan investitsiya tadqiqoti va yuqoridagi maʼlumotlarga oid risk haqida ogohlantirishimizni oʻqib chiqqaningizga va tushunganingizga ishonch hosil qiling, unga bu yerdan kirish mumkin.