Hedge funds search for trades in dead-heat US election
Investors seek asymmetric trades with limited downside
Bitcoin and yuan trades seen as potential winners
Some say Trump trade overdone as race stays tight
By Carolina Mandl and Davide Barbuscia
NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) -Hedge funds and other investors are searching for trades that profit from a win by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, but also offer limited downside in the event of a victory by Vice President Kamala Harris.
As the nearly deadlocked race nears, some are looking for so-called "asymmetric trades" involving bitcoin or the yuan, assets which could yield big profits if Trump wins but would not cause big losses if the wagers are wrong.
"Trading the election is difficult given how tight it is," said Edoardo Rulli, head of UBS Hedge Fund Solutions.
Some betting websites have favored Trump, which has created momentum behind the so-called Trump trades. Others are now forecasting those trades, which involve bets that could benefit from a Trump victory, could lose momentum or reverse in the case of a Harris win.
Trades that could yield higher gains than losses in whichever scenario plays out include a long position in bitcoin, said David Kalk, founder at hedge fund Reflexive Capital.
He said the potential bitcoin upside would be two to three times the money which is put at risk if Trump wins, as he expects a more friendly regulatory approach to crypto under the former president. "The negative price response we expect (in case of a Harris' victory) just seems much smaller than the upside of a Trump win," Kalk said.
Macro hedge fund MKP Capital Management's founder Patrick McMahon said he sees shorting the yuan versus the dollar as an asymmetric trade, given the losses the Chinese currency may face if tariffs were imposed.
Some have placed neutral bets, such as pairing a short position on a stock with a long one, reducing directional exposure, said Robert Christian, chief investment officer at K2 Advisors. This way gains in one trade could offset losses in another.
Mario Unali, head of investment advisory at Kairos Partners, which manages a fund of hedge funds, said trades were pivoting to a Trump win because a victory for Harris is more about the status quo, so losses would be limited.
The hedge fund industry has so far posted gains of 8.3% in the first nine months of the year, according to research firm PivotalPath. The industry average is underperforming the S&P 500's 20% gain, putting some hedge funds under more pressure to adopt a more cautious stance on the race that will deliver some upside.
Jon Caplis, CEO of PivotalPath, expects some selling ahead of the election. "They could bank those returns, and then they could wait for weeks or months, depending on how long it takes before things become clear again."
TRUMP TRADE
Large wagers on betting markets have raised questions by social media users about whether they were swaying the markets or whether prediction markets were simply a better leading indicator of the race.
The Trump trades included a selloff in Treasuries, the yuan, and a rise in shares of Trump Media & Technology Group DJT.O.
Because the two candidates are still neck and neck a few days from the election, some investors question whether some of the trades placed on expectations of a Trump victory may be overdone.
An average of national polls according to opinion poll aggregator 538 on Thursday had Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris at 48.1% versus Trump at 46.7%, a gap which is 1.3 percentage point smaller than on Oct. 1.
"At the end of the day I think this short term move in Treasuries is probably overdone," said John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors.
"If Harris wins you would probably see a snap back lower in long-term yields, but I think we’re going to see it either way," he added.
Strategists at Citi said they have recently exited some of their Trump trades, including one that profited from rising five-year inflation expectations.
"We have been taking profits on the view that the risk-reward is no longer compelling for some of these trades, with prices and positioning having moved and, in our view, perhaps more than polls alone would have justified," they said in a note on Tuesday.
A Republican sweep could exacerbate the bond selloff due to higher deficit spending expectations in that scenario, but there is also a "meaningful risk of a sharp reversal in a Harris victory," they added.
Reporting by Carolina Mandl and Davide Barbuscia, additional reporting by Suzanne McGee; editing by Megan Davies and Anna Driver
متعلقہ اثاثے
تازہ ترين خبريں
دستبرداری: XM Group کے ادارے ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت تک صرف عملدرآمد کی خدمت اور رسائی مہیا کرتے ہیں، کسی شخص کو ویب سائٹ پر یا اس کے ذریعے دستیاب کانٹینٹ کو دیکھنے اور/یا استعمال کرنے کی اجازت دیتا ہے، اس پر تبدیل یا توسیع کا ارادہ نہیں ہے ، اور نہ ہی یہ تبدیل ہوتا ہے یا اس پر وسعت کریں۔ اس طرح کی رسائی اور استعمال ہمیشہ مشروط ہوتا ہے: (i) شرائط و ضوابط؛ (ii) خطرہ انتباہات؛ اور (iii) مکمل دستبرداری۔ لہذا اس طرح کے مواد کو عام معلومات سے زیادہ کے طور پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے۔ خاص طور پر، براہ کرم آگاہ رہیں کہ ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت کے مندرجات نہ تو کوئی درخواست ہے، اور نہ ہی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں کوئی لین دین داخل کرنے کی پیش کش ہے۔ کسی بھی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں تجارت میں آپ کے سرمائے کے لئے ایک خاص سطح کا خطرہ ہوتا ہے۔
ہماری آن لائن تجارتی سہولت پر شائع ہونے والے تمام مٹیریل کا مقصد صرف تعلیمی/معلوماتی مقاصد کے لئے ہے، اور اس میں شامل نہیں ہے — اور نہ ہی اسے فنانشل، سرمایہ کاری ٹیکس یا تجارتی مشورے اور سفارشات؛ یا ہماری تجارتی قیمتوں کا ریکارڈ؛ یا کسی بھی فنانشل انسٹرومنٹ میں لین دین کی پیشکش؛ یا اسکے لئے مانگ؛ یا غیر متنازعہ مالی تشہیرات پر مشتمل سمجھا جانا چاہئے۔
کوئی تھرڈ پارٹی کانٹینٹ، نیز XM کے ذریعہ تیار کردہ کانٹینٹ، جیسے: راۓ، خبریں، تحقیق، تجزیہ، قیمتیں اور دیگر معلومات یا اس ویب سائٹ پر مشتمل تھرڈ پارٹی کے سائٹس کے لنکس کو "جیسے ہے" کی بنیاد پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے، عام مارکیٹ کی تفسیر کے طور پر، اور سرمایہ کاری کے مشورے کو تشکیل نہ دیں۔ اس حد تک کہ کسی بھی کانٹینٹ کو سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیقات کے طور پر سمجھا جاتا ہے، آپ کو نوٹ کرنا اور قبول کرنا ہوگا کہ یہ کانٹینٹ سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیق کی آزادی کو فروغ دینے کے لئے ڈیزائن کردہ قانونی تقاضوں کے مطابق نہیں ہے اور تیار نہیں کیا گیا ہے، اسی طرح، اس پر غور کیا جائے گا بطور متعلقہ قوانین اور ضوابط کے تحت مارکیٹنگ مواصلات۔ براہ کرم یقینی بنائیں کہ آپ غیر آزاد سرمایہ کاری سے متعلق ہماری اطلاع کو پڑھ اور سمجھ چکے ہیں۔ مذکورہ بالا معلومات کے بارے میں تحقیق اور رسک وارننگ ، جس تک رسائی یہاں حاصل کی جا سکتی ہے۔
