What are the Fed's bank 'stress tests' and what's new this year?
By Pete Schroeder and Michelle Price
WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) -The U.S. Federal Reserve is due to release the results of its annual bank health checks on Wednesday at 4:30 p.m. ET (2030 GMT). Under the "stress test" exercise, the Fed tests big banks' balance sheets against a hypothetical scenario of asevere economic downturn, the elements of which change annually.
The results dictate how much capital those banks need to be deemed healthy and how much they can return to shareholders via share buybacks and dividends. This year,big U.S. lenders are once again expected to show they have ample capital to weather any fresh turmoil in the banking sector.
WHY DOES THE FED 'STRESS TEST' BANKS?
The Fed established the tests following the 2007-2009 financial crisis as a tool to ensure banks could withstand a similar shock in future. The tests formally began in 2011, and large lenders initially struggled to earn passing grades.
Citigroup C.N, Bank of America BAC.N, JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM.N, and Goldman Sachs Group GS.N, for example, had to adjust their capital plans to address the Fed's concerns. Deutsche Bank's U.S. subsidiary failed in 2015, 2016 and 2018.
However, years of practice have made banks more adept at the tests and the Fed also has made the tests more transparent. It ended much of the drama of the tests by scrapping the "pass-fail" model in 2020and introducing a more nuanced, bank-specific capital regime.
HOW ARE BANKS ASSESSED NOW?
The test assesses whether banks would stay above the required 4.5% minimum capital ratio - which represents the percentage of its capital relative to assets -during the hypothetical downturn. Banks that perform strongly typically stay well above that. The nation's largest global banks also must hold an additional "G-SIB surcharge" of at least 1%.
How well a bank performs on the test also dictates the size of its "stress capital buffer," an additional layer of capital introduced in 2020 which sits on top of the 4.5% minimum.
That extra cushion is determined by each bank's hypothetical losses. The larger the losses, the larger the buffer.
THE ROLL OUT
The Fed will release the results after markets close. It typically publishes aggregate industry losses, and individual bank losses including details on how specific portfolios - like credit cards or mortgages - fared.
The central bank typically does not allow banks to announce their plans for dividends and buybacks until a few days after the results. It announces the size of each bank's stress capital buffer in the subsequent months.
The performance ofthe country's largest lenders, particularly JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo & Co WFC.N, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley MS.N, are closely watched by the markets.
TEST IN LINE WITH 2023
The Fed changes the scenarios each year. They take months to devise and test a snapshot of banks' balance sheets at the end of the previous year. That means they risk becoming outdated.
In 2020, for example, the real economic crash caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was by many measures more severe than the Fed's scenario that year.
After the failures of mid-size lenders Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic last year,the Fed was criticized for not having tested bank balance sheets against a rising interest rate environment, andinstead assuming rates would fall amid a severe recession.
This year's test is broadly in line with the 2023 test, with the hypothetical unemployment rateunder a "severely adverse" scenario rising 6.3 percentage points compared with 6.4 last year.
STRESSES IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
The exam also envisages a 40% slump in the prices of commercial real estate, an area of concern over the past two years as lingering pandemic-era office vacancies and higher for longer interest rates stress borrowers.
In addition, banks with large trading operations will be tested against a "global market shock," and some will also be tested against the failure of their largest counterparty.
For the second time, the Fed is also conducting "exploratory" shocks to banks. This year's test also includes additional exploratory economic and market shocks which won't help set capital requirements, but will help the Fed gauge whether it should broaden the test in the future. The market shocks will apply to the largest banks, while all 32 will be tested on the economic shocks.
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr has said multiple scenarios could make the tests better at detecting banks' weaknesses.
WHICH BANKS ARE TESTED?
In 2024, 32 banks will be tested. That's up from 23 last year, as the Fed decided in 2019 to allow banks with between $100 billion and $250 billion in assets to be tested every other year.
These are the banks being tested in 2024:
Ally Financial ALLY.N
American Express AXP.N
Bank of America Corporation
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation BK.N
Barclays US LLC
BMO Financial Corp.
Capital One Financial Corporation COF.N
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW.N
Citigroup C.N
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. CFG.N
Credit Suisse Holdings (USA)
DB USA Corporation
Discover Financial Services DFS.N
Fifth Third Bancorp FITB.O
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS.N
HSBC North America Holdings
Huntington Bancshares HBAN.O
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM.N
Keycorp KEY.N
M&T Bank Corporation MTB.N
Morgan Stanley MS.N
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS.O
The PNC Financial Services PNC.N
RBC US Group Holdings LLC
Regions Financial Corporation
Santander Holdings USA
State Street Corporation STT.N
TD Group US Holdings LLC
Truist Financial Corporation TFC.N
UBS Americas Holding LLC
U.S. Bancorp USB.N
Wells Fargo & Company WFC.N
Reporting by Pete Schroeder and Michelle Price, editing by Deepa Babington
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دستبرداری: XM Group کے ادارے ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت تک صرف عملدرآمد کی خدمت اور رسائی مہیا کرتے ہیں، کسی شخص کو ویب سائٹ پر یا اس کے ذریعے دستیاب کانٹینٹ کو دیکھنے اور/یا استعمال کرنے کی اجازت دیتا ہے، اس پر تبدیل یا توسیع کا ارادہ نہیں ہے ، اور نہ ہی یہ تبدیل ہوتا ہے یا اس پر وسعت کریں۔ اس طرح کی رسائی اور استعمال ہمیشہ مشروط ہوتا ہے: (i) شرائط و ضوابط؛ (ii) خطرہ انتباہات؛ اور (iii) مکمل دستبرداری۔ لہذا اس طرح کے مواد کو عام معلومات سے زیادہ کے طور پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے۔ خاص طور پر، براہ کرم آگاہ رہیں کہ ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت کے مندرجات نہ تو کوئی درخواست ہے، اور نہ ہی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں کوئی لین دین داخل کرنے کی پیش کش ہے۔ کسی بھی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں تجارت میں آپ کے سرمائے کے لئے ایک خاص سطح کا خطرہ ہوتا ہے۔
ہماری آن لائن تجارتی سہولت پر شائع ہونے والے تمام مٹیریل کا مقصد صرف تعلیمی/معلوماتی مقاصد کے لئے ہے، اور اس میں شامل نہیں ہے — اور نہ ہی اسے فنانشل، سرمایہ کاری ٹیکس یا تجارتی مشورے اور سفارشات؛ یا ہماری تجارتی قیمتوں کا ریکارڈ؛ یا کسی بھی فنانشل انسٹرومنٹ میں لین دین کی پیشکش؛ یا اسکے لئے مانگ؛ یا غیر متنازعہ مالی تشہیرات پر مشتمل سمجھا جانا چاہئے۔
کوئی تھرڈ پارٹی کانٹینٹ، نیز XM کے ذریعہ تیار کردہ کانٹینٹ، جیسے: راۓ، خبریں، تحقیق، تجزیہ، قیمتیں اور دیگر معلومات یا اس ویب سائٹ پر مشتمل تھرڈ پارٹی کے سائٹس کے لنکس کو "جیسے ہے" کی بنیاد پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے، عام مارکیٹ کی تفسیر کے طور پر، اور سرمایہ کاری کے مشورے کو تشکیل نہ دیں۔ اس حد تک کہ کسی بھی کانٹینٹ کو سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیقات کے طور پر سمجھا جاتا ہے، آپ کو نوٹ کرنا اور قبول کرنا ہوگا کہ یہ کانٹینٹ سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیق کی آزادی کو فروغ دینے کے لئے ڈیزائن کردہ قانونی تقاضوں کے مطابق نہیں ہے اور تیار نہیں کیا گیا ہے، اسی طرح، اس پر غور کیا جائے گا بطور متعلقہ قوانین اور ضوابط کے تحت مارکیٹنگ مواصلات۔ براہ کرم یقینی بنائیں کہ آپ غیر آزاد سرمایہ کاری سے متعلق ہماری اطلاع کو پڑھ اور سمجھ چکے ہیں۔ مذکورہ بالا معلومات کے بارے میں تحقیق اور رسک وارننگ ، جس تک رسائی یہاں حاصل کی جا سکتی ہے۔
