Thai inflation target range still effective, central bank minutes say
Recasts
By Orathai Sriring
BANGKOK, Sept 4 (Reuters) -Thailand's current inflation target range of 1% to 3% has been effective in anchoring expectations and in handling price shocks, minutes of the Bank of Thailand's (BOT) Aug. 21 monetary policy meeting showed on Wednesday.
The finance minister and central bank chief will meet this month to open negotiations on an inflation target for 2025, with the government seeking a new goal as it seeks an interest rate cut.
At the Aug. 21 meeting, the monetary policy committee voted 6-1 to hold the one-day repurchase rate THCBIR=ECI unchanged at 2.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting. One member favoured a quarter-point cut.
The next rate review is due on Oct. 16.
The current inflation target range has effectively anchored medium-term inflation expectations and has been sufficiently flexible to accommodate supply-side fluctuations, such as the recent rise in global energy prices, the minutes said.
"The inflation target also helped lower inflation persistence and allow the shocks to quickly dissipate in such scenarios," the minutes said.
Going forward, the Thai economy would face more relative price changes from supply-side fluctuations and structural factors, the minutes said.
"A flexible inflation target range, therefore, would play a crucial role in maintaining medium-term price stability".
Headline inflation averaged 0.11% in January-July, well below the target range.
The committee assessed headline inflation would gradually return into the range by the end of 2024, expecting it to stabilise near the lower bound of the target range.
The current low inflation rate did not indicate signs of deflation and could partly alleviate the rise in the cost of living, the minutes said.
According to the minutes, financial conditions have tightened for Thailand's small- and medium-sized enterprises and some households, and it was crucial to monitor private investment and consumption.
The central bank also said the economy was expected to expand as projected but the recovery was uneven across sectors.
The BOT has forecast economic growthof 2.6% this year, after last year's 1.9% expansion that lagged regional peers.
Reporting by Orathai Sriring; Editing by John Mair
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