Earnings season brings niggling worry to nervous investors
STOXX 600 +0.3%, 1-mth high
SMI at more than 2-year peak
Energy stocks lead
Wall St futures steady
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EARNINGS SEASON BRINGS NIGGLING WORRY FOR NERVOUS INVESTORS
Today marks the unofficial curtain-raiser for Q2 earnings, with big U.S. banks JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all due to report. Expectations are high by recent history, so market players are cautious.
Second-quarter earnings for STOXX 600 .STOXX companies are seen increasing 0.8%, LSEG I/B/E/S data shows, in what would be the first quarter of positive growth since the first three months of 2023.
For S&P 500 companies .SPX, earnings are expected to have jumped 10.1% year-over-year.
"The bar for companies to outperform and exceed those expectations is the highest since 2011," says Aneeka Gupta, director of macroeconomic research, at WisdomTree.
Gupta is more constructive on European shares, given the lower earnings bar to hurdle and as the ECB has already begun loosening policy.
"History has shown us that when macroeconomic data is hitting the bottom and you have the central bank stepping in, that often leads to a strong rebound in performance," Gupta adds.
Barclays European equity strategists say their U.S. clients are expecting cautious guidance this earnings season given macro uncertainty and tougher comps.
"Clients note Q2 earnings estimates haven't displayed the typical downward pattern into this reporting season, despite economic surprises rolling over lately," Barclays writes in a note.
"Caution is mounting given high positioning, softer data and a high earnings hurdle," Barclays adds.
(Samuel Indyk)
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