Bullish on Norway's crown? Consider NOK/SEK plays
July 29 (Reuters) -Early indications suggest that Norway's crown could have a better week and possibly at the cost of a weaker Swedish crown.
A steady climb in EUR/NOK since late June and sticky Norwegian inflation has forced the Norges Bank to maintain a hawkish stance, which has helped slow the crown's depreciation. However, broad-based dollar gains and a falling oil price have hurt the NOK.
Those looking to trade an NOK recovery might find the going easier versus the SEK despite the top-heavy appearance of EUR/NOK. The Viking cross based at 0.9741 last week and has climbed above recent 0.9845 highs to reach 0.9850. The cross is maintaining a course for the 200-day moving average line, currently at 0.9873.
Fibonacci retracement levels taken off the 0.9984-0.9738 July 9-24 drop have provided bull targets. The 23.6% and 38.2% levels, 0.9796 and 0.9832, respectively, have already been removed. The key 50% retracement level is at 0.9861 and the 61.8% level is at 0.9890.
Bullish central bank divergence has been a driver for the NOK but the impact of a hawkish Norges Bank and a more accommodating Riksbank has been lessened by other factors, like the falling oil price and broad-based dollar gains.
Potential for an oil recovery and weak Swedish growth data have underpinned NOK/SEK in early Monday trade and this could set the theme for the week ahead.
For more click on FXBUZ
NOK/SEK daily candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3YmK7Zq
EUR/NOK daily candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/4c2JozB
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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