As CPI risk clears ... it's lift off!
By Jamie McGeever
May 16 (Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
It's 'green for go' in Asia on Thursday as stock markets around the world roar to fresh highs, boosted by renewed optimism that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting U.S. interest rates following benign inflation figures on Wednesday.
The most notable exception is China, where the threat of outright deflation continues to loom large over the economy and depress risk appetite, while the yen's rebound on Wednesday could halt the Japanese equity revival in its tracks.
Otherwise, the market mood could barely be more positive. Stocks are on fire, bond yields are sliding to the lowest levels in months, the dollar is retreating and appetite for riskier investments like emerging market assets is strong.
While one data point does not a trend make, investors have latched onto the U.S. inflation report for April as evidence the Fed can start cutting rates soon - July is back in play and 50 basis points of cuts this year is now fully priced.
Economists at UBS highlighted one particularly interesting nugget from the data - April marked the 16th time in 18 months when the non-seasonally adjusted core CPI one-month change was below the change 12 months prior. Maybe a trend is in place?
That's the bullish backdrop for investors in Asia who also have several key local events to navigate on Thursday, including: first quarter Japanese GDP, Australian unemployment and a monetary policy decision from the Philippines.
First quarter GDP data from Japan are expected to show Asia's second largest economy contracted an annualized 1.5% in the January-March period, signaling a quarterly decline of 0.4%, according to a Reuters poll.
All key drivers of growth are expected to have gone into reverse in the quarter, not a particularly conducive environment for further rate hikes from the Bank of Japan.
But that's exactly what markets are expecting - 25 bps of tightening is now in the 2024 money market curve, bond yields are rising and the 10-year U.S.-Japan yield spread on Wednesday shrank to less than 340 bps, the narrowest since March.
The yen rallied 1% on Wednesday. Excluding April 29 and May 1, the two days of suspected yen-buying Japanese intervention, it was the currency's best day this year.
Chinese assets are struggling more, mirroring the wider gloom hanging over the economy and the difficult choices policymakers face in lifting it. Sentiment will have been dampened further by Washington's new tariffs on some imports from China.
It's a big day for Chinese company news on Thursday, with heavyweights Baidu and JD.Com both reporting first quarter earnings.
In the Philippines, meanwhile, the central bank is expected to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, and not lower it until the final quarter of this year, according to a Reuters poll.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:
- Japan GDP (Q1)
- Australia unemployment (April)
- Philippines central bank decision
Yen rallies 1% vs U.S. dollar https://tmsnrt.rs/4an5PyN
US-Japan yield spread narrowest in two months https://tmsnrt.rs/3UYNWlo
Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務，允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容，但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限，並受以下條款與條例約束：（i）條款與條例；（ii）風險提示；（iii）完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊，僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意，我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成，也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料，僅適用於教育/資訊類用途，不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議，或是交易價格紀錄，或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容，包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接，皆爲‘按原狀’，並作爲一般市場評論所提供，而非投資建議。請理解和接受，所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容，並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性，而根據法律要求所編寫，而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊，相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。
