• GBPJPY retreats somewhat, but broader picture remains positive
• Momentum oscillators suggest declines

GBPJPY retreats after several attempts to touch the 200.00 round number, but the short-term bias remains positive.

From a technical perspective, there is a growing risk of a negative correction. The stochastic oscillator is pointing south, ready to post a bearish crossover, while the RSI is ticking down near the neutral threshold of 50.

If GBPUSD extends its rally above the 199.70 resistance, the 200.00 is the first point of call, after which attention would turn to the 202.00 handle.

However, should the price reverse, there could be some support at the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of 197.20. Further down, the 195.40 mark could attempt to halt the decline ahead of the crucial support line of the 200-day SMA at 194.40. A breach of this line would shift the risks to the downside, meeting the 50-day SMA at 193.30 and the near-term uptrend line near 190.00.

In brief, there could be some further downside moves for GBPJPY in the short term before the rally continues to the upside. But the price needs to surpass the 200.00 key level to put the uptrend on a more sustainable footing, whereas a drop below the uptrend line would attract the bears.