Tuesday data: Less unhappy days are here again
Main U.S. indexes green; S&P 500 scores record intraday high
Cons disc leads S&P 500 gainers; healthcare weakest group
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.5%
Dollar up slightly; crude up >1%; bitcoin jumps >5%; gold dips
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~3.64%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
TUESDAY DATA: LESS UNHAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN
Across the board, Tuesday's data beat expectations by a nose, suggesting that while the economy might be softening, it's not quite as soft as analysts thought.
Whether this affects the size of the Fed's first rate cut in 4-1/2 years, remains to be seen.
Retail sales USRSL=ECI unexpectedly eked out a meager gain last month, rising 0.1% on the shoulders of July's upwardly revised 1.1% growth.
Consensus called for a 0.2% decline.
Year-over-year, receipts at U.S. retailers have increased 2.13%, a deceleration from the prior month's 2.86%, according to the report from the Commerce Department.
Scraping beneath the headline, a 1.2% drop in gasoline station receipts - owing to cooling energy prices - and a 1.1% slide in the beleaguered department store segment were offset by a 1.7% gain at miscellaneous store retailers and a 1.4% increase in non-store retail, which includes online sales.
Food/beverages and groceries dipped by 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.
So-called "control" or "core" retail sales - which strips away motor vehicles/parts, gasoline, building materials and food services, corresponds closely with the consumer spending element of GDP - increased by 0.3% as analysts expected.
"Today's retail sales number is solid but not a game-changer," writes Ken Tjonasam, portfolio strategist at Global X. "The market is still left with the same question: Will the Fed go for 25bps or 50bps?"
"While retail sales are holding steady, it wasn't the game-changing data point that could tip the Fed's hand either way."
Separately, a report from the Federal Reserve showed U.S. industrial output USIP=ECI jumped by 0.8% in August, bouncing back from the previous month's downwardly revised 0.9% slide and blasting past the 0.2% consensus.
It was the strongest monthly increase since February.
Even so, production data from the recent ISM survey is "pointing to sharp falls in output over the next few months," says Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "High interest rates, weak external demand, depressed home sales, and anemic measures of investment intentions all point to a poor outlook for manufacturing."
"A weak industrial sector looks set to be a headwind to growth over the rest of this year."
Capacity utilization USCAPU=ECI, a gauge of economic slack, tightened to 78.0% from July's 77.4% print.
Moving to the housing market, the mood amongst builders has grown a shade less morose this month.
The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Housing index USNAHB=ECI added 2 points to deliver a reading of 41, a tad less pessimistic than the even 40 projected by economists.
An NAHB number below 50 indicates net pessimism among survey participants.
"With inflation moderating, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin a cycle of monetary policy easing this week, which will produce downward pressure on mortgage interest rates and also lower the interest rates on land development and home construction business loans," says Robert Dietz, NAHB's chief economist. "Lowering the cost of construction is critical to confront persistent challenges for housing affordability."
And finally, the value of goods stacked in the store rooms of U.S. businesses USBINV=ECI increased by 0.4% in July, a bit stronger than the 0.3% analyst estimate.
That bodes well for current-quarter GDP.
Private inventories was a net contributor to second-quarter GDP after pulling the topline lower for the two previous quarters:
(Stephen Culp)
*****
FOR TUESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
S&P 500 FLIRTS WITH RECORD HIGHS - CLICK HERE
ACTIVE INVESTING BACK IN VOGUE AMONG RETIREMENT ADVISERS, SURVEY SHOWS - CLICK HERE
S&P 500 INDEX EYES ITS RECORD HIGHS, GETS SET FOR FED - CLICK HERE -CLICK HERE
YEN RALLY: SLAM DUNK OR WIDOWMAKER? - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN CYCLICALS READY TO REBOUND - MORGAN STANLEY - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN BANKS CHEAP ENOUGH TO ABSORB RATE CUTS - UBS - CLICK HERE
CAN TRUMP WEAKEN THE DOLLAR? - CLICK HERE
STOXX ON THE UP - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN FUTURES EDGE HIGHER ON FED OPTIMISM - CLICK HERE
YEN'S BIG WEEK BEGINS - CLICK HERE
Retail sales https://reut.rs/3TB00rR
Industrial production https://reut.rs/3Txzr6K
Business inventories https://reut.rs/3Xrrykx
Relaterade tillgångar
Senaste nytt
Ansvarsfriskrivning: XM Group-enheter tillhandahåller sin tjänst enbart för exekvering och tillgången till vår onlinehandelsplattform, som innebär att en person kan se och/eller använda tillgängligt innehåll på eller via webbplatsen, påverkar eller utökar inte detta, vilket inte heller varit avsikten. Denna tillgång och användning omfattas alltid av i) villkor, ii) riskvarningar och iii) fullständig ansvarsfriskrivning. Detta innehåll tillhandahålls därför uteslutande som allmän information. Var framför allt medveten om att innehållet på vår onlinehandelsplattform varken utgör en uppmaning eller ett erbjudande om att ingå några transaktioner på de finansiella marknaderna. Handel på alla finansiella marknader involverar en betydande risk för ditt kapital.
Allt material som publiceras på denna sida är enbart avsett för utbildnings- eller informationssyften och innehåller inte – och ska inte heller anses innehålla – rådgivning och rekommendationer om finansiella frågor, investeringsskatt eller handel, dokumentation av våra handelskurser eller ett erbjudande om, eller en uppmaning till, en transaktion i finansiella instrument eller oönskade finansiella erbjudanden som är riktade till dig.
Tredjepartsinnehåll, liksom innehåll framtaget av XM såsom synpunkter, nyheter, forskningsrön, analyser, kurser, andra uppgifter eller länkar till tredjepartssajter som återfinns på denna webbplats, tillhandahålls i befintligt skick, som allmän marknadskommentar, och utgör ingen investeringsrådgivning. I den mån som något innehåll tolkas som investeringsforskning måste det noteras och accepteras att innehållet varken har varit avsett som oberoende investeringsforskning eller har utarbetats i enlighet med de rättsliga kraven för att främja ett sådant syfte, och därför är att betrakta som marknadskommunikation enligt tillämpliga lagar och föreskrifter. Se till så att du har läst och förstått vårt meddelande om icke-oberoende investeringsforskning och riskvarning om ovannämnda information, som finns här.
