EM FX leaps on hopes for dovish Fed; growth worries weigh on Latin America
Updated at 1520 GMT
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By Lisa Pauline Mattackal
Aug 2 (Reuters) -An index tracking global emerging market currencies leaped against a falling dollar after weaker-than-expected U.S. payrolls stoked hopes for a dovish turn from the Federal Reserve, though EM equities and Latin American currencies slumped as growth worries weighed.
MSCI's index of EM currencies .MIEM00000CUS leapt 0.3% to its highest since May as the U.S. dollar =USD fell after weak payrolls data stoked hopes for a larger rate cut in September.
Expectations for the Fed to cut by 50 basis points (bps), instead of 25 bps jumped from 22% to over 73% following the data, according to the CME's FedWatch.
However, that was not enough to stem a global selloff in equities as growth worries sent investors rushing for safe haven assets. MSCI's index of emerging market stocks .MSCIEF slumped 2.3%, set to clock its worst day since February 2023 if losses hold.
Markets in Latin America also tumbled, with indexes of regional currencies .MILA00000CUS and stocks .MILA00000PUS down 1.7% and 2.9%, respectively, both at their lowest levels since last October.
"What makes this a bad situation for Latin America is the fact that the U.S. becoming a softer economy directly impacts the general health of the hemisphere," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA.
"Combined with China already not being an engine of growth, it leaves Latam to its own domestic struggles which are only exacerbated by a fragile political situation."
Mexico's peso MXN= slumped 1.1%, touching its lowest to the greenback since March 2023 as a higher-than-expected jobless rate print also weighed.
Bourses in Latin America slumped, with stocks in Argentina .MERV, Brazil.BVSP, Colombia .COLCAP and Mexico .MXX down between 0.8% and 3.2%.
Stocks of the region's commodity-focused companies slumped, with Brazil's Petrobras PETR4.SA, Vale SA VALE3.SA and Colombia's Ecopetrol ECO.CN falling to multi-month lows.
The moves capped a hectic week for emerging market assets. An initial boost to risk sentiment following the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday quickly gave way to concerns over global growth, after weak U.S. data, geopolitical worries in the Middle East and further signs of economic slowdown in China.
MSCI's EM stock index was on track to fall for a third straight week, however, the currency index was set to rise about 0.7% in its best week since December.
However, Latin American assets were set to underperform, with the stocks index on track to fall over 3% and currencies down 1.8%.
Brazil's real BRBY briefly slumped to its lowest since 2021 against the greenback, before reversing course to rise 0.1%.
Brazil industrial data came in strongly above expectations, its best monthly growth since July 2020, data showed.
EM debt-focused funds saw outflows of $0.2 billion over the past week, according to data from Bank of America Global Research, though EM equity funds have seen about $4.5 billion in inflows over the past nine weeks.
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Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies
Latest | Daily % change | |
MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF | 1063.03 | -2.28 |
MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS | 2119.96 | -2.97 |
Brazil Bovespa .BVSP | 126298.47 | -0.86 |
Mexico IPC .MXX | 52003.61 | -0.79 |
Chile IPSA .SPIPSA | 6302.69 | -1.8 |
Argentina MerVal .MERV | 1453020.70 | -3.146 |
Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP | 1320.14 | -1.61 |
Currencies | Latest | Daily % change |
Brazil real BRBY | 5.7486 | -0.26 |
Mexico peso MXN=D2 | 19.0421 | -1.04 |
Chile peso CLP=CL | 950.5 | 0.13 |
Colombia peso COP= | 4106.38 | -0.57 |
Peru sol PEN=PE | 3.7473 | -0.41 |
Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL | 932.5000 | -0.05 |
Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB= | 1365 | 1.10 |
Reporting by Lisa Mattackal in Bengaluru; Editing by Alistair Bell
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