• Bitcoin rises on Friday in an overall volatile week

• Correlation between cryptos and tech stocks weakens

• Ethereum fails to capitalise on spot Ether ETF launch

 

Crypto market floods with fresh catalysts

Bitcoin has exhibited some wild swings lately, while its traditional strong correlation with other risk-sensitive assets has ebbed significantly. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap managed to erase a significant part of its June slump as the odds of Donald Trump returning to the White house for a second term have increased.

During his presidency, Trump was a firm critic of cryptocurrencies, labelling Bitcoin as ‘a scam against the dollar’. However, he recently reversed his stance and also appointed JD Vance, a known crypto advocate, as the Republican vice-presidential candidate. This move indicates a possible shift towards a more favourable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, if Trump secures a second presidency.

As Trump is currently leading the presidential opinion polls, crypto investors have been meticulously scrutinising the potential impact of his agenda on major assets like stocks and the dollar, which could in turn dictate moves in digital coins. Nevertheless, this seems to be a very difficult mission, given the recent correlation break observed between cryptos and stocks. For instance, Bitcoin’s one-month correlation with the Nasdaq 100 is currently standing at 0.168, according to LSEG data, way below its historical average.

Spot Ether ETF debut leaves bulls uninterested

On Tuesday, the highly anticipated launch of spot-Ether ETFs in the US took place.  Although this development was expected to be a fresh growth lever in the broader crypto space, the price of Ethereum has been dropping in the days following the event. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs attracted $106.7 million on their first day of trading, which is around 16% of what their Bitcoin counterparts did.

As we saw with the launch of spot-Bitcoin ETFs, the actual occurrence triggered a sell-the-fact type of reaction. Moreover, it could be argued that the event did not garner much attention as markets have been very focused on the so-called Trump trade. In any case, Bitcoin’s supremacy in the crypto board was restated again, suggesting that ETFs for smaller coins might not have much of an impact.

Bitcoin bounces off 50-day SMA

BTCUSD has been trending higher in July, violating both its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and posting a fresh one-month peak of $63,390. Despite Bitcoin experiencing a minor pullback from its recent peak, it managed to find its feet as the 50-day SMA prevented further declines.

Should Bitcoin edge up further, the bulls could attack the one-month high of $68,490, registered on July 22. Even higher, the double top region of $71,955 might prove to be a tough barrier for the price to overcome.

On the flipside, bearish actions could send the price to test the recent support of 63,390, which overlaps with the 50-day SMA. If that barricade fails, the May support of $60,150 could come under scrutiny.