Market Comment – Euro/dollar in critical area as the Jackson Hole Symposium nears
Stocks record strong weekly gains as the first Fed rate cut gets closer
Markets are gradually preparing for the Jackson Hole gathering
Euro/dollar trades within a critical resistance area
Gold in demand as geopolitics generate headlines
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Perf-Aug19.png)
Markets continue to recover after the recent rout, with US equities finishing last week with strong gains. More specifically, the Nasdaq 100 index led the rally with a 5.4% weekly rise as the three main US stock indices simultaneously recorded weekly gains of more than 2% for the first time since the December 11-15, 2023 period.
The three main US stock indices simultaneously recorded weekly gains of more than 2% for the first time December 2023
Last week's mixed US data has probably played a key role in the improved market mood. The US inflation report for July surprised somewhat to the downside, cementing expectations for a September Fed rate cut. The exaggerated calls for emergency cuts or a 50bps rate cut next month have eased now that equities are performing better, although there are still some diehards advocating for a strong move if the early September non-farm payroll figure disappoints considerably.
Friday’s retail sales report managed to surprise to the upside, but the market continues to ignore the strong data and instead focuses on data prints pointing to an economic slowdown like last week's weak housing data and the key Michigan consumer sentiment survey remaining stuck at a low level.
Markets preparing for a dovish Jackson Hole gatheringThe focus is gradually turning to the Jackson Hole Symposium held on August 22-24. While most Fed members stayed on the sidelines during the recent market rout, they made a comeback at the latter part of last week in an attempt to set the scene for Friday’s speech by Fed Chairman Powell.
The focus is gradually turning to the Jackson Hole Symposium held on August 22-24.
The gist of their appearances was that the time is nigh for the first rate cut of the easing cycle. We are bound to hear more from Fed members leading up to the Symposium with Fed’s Waller, a known hawk and a 2024 voter, being on the wires later today.
Until then, the August preliminary PMI surveys for both the manufacturing and services sectors could prove significant for market sentiment. The US dollar remains on the back foot, underperforming its key rivals in August, as euro/dollar continues to edge higher despite the eurozone data being mediocre at best.
Another set of weak euro area prints on Thursday could finally allow the dollar to recoup part of its recent losses, especially as euro/dollar is now trading inside the key 1.1032-1.1095 area. This region has clearly been a problem for euro bulls since 2023 as there have been four occasions in the past 18 months when a move above this area failed spectacularly.
Euro/dollar is now trading inside the key 1.1032-1.1095 areaGold reaches new high, bitcoin rally falters
Demand for gold remains potent, pushing the precious metal to a new record high while bitcoin has dropped below the $60k level again. The situation in the Israel-Iran-Hamas conflict remains fluid with Iran still expected to make a show of force in response to the recent assassination of Hamas’ political leader. Negotiations for a ceasefire have come to a standstill once again as the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting the region.
In the meantime, Ukraine's attempt to reverse the fate of the Russian-Ukraine conflict by mounting an offensive in Russian territories is gathering momentum. However, the possible direct involvement of Belarus and the increased chances of an asymmetric response from the Russian side could potentially scare investors going forward.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Calendar-Aug19-1024x151.png)
Relaterade tillgångar
Senaste nytt
Ansvarsfriskrivning: XM Group-enheter tillhandahåller sin tjänst enbart för exekvering och tillgången till vår onlinehandelsplattform, som innebär att en person kan se och/eller använda tillgängligt innehåll på eller via webbplatsen, påverkar eller utökar inte detta, vilket inte heller varit avsikten. Denna tillgång och användning omfattas alltid av i) villkor, ii) riskvarningar och iii) fullständig ansvarsfriskrivning. Detta innehåll tillhandahålls därför uteslutande som allmän information. Var framför allt medveten om att innehållet på vår onlinehandelsplattform varken utgör en uppmaning eller ett erbjudande om att ingå några transaktioner på de finansiella marknaderna. Handel på alla finansiella marknader involverar en betydande risk för ditt kapital.
Allt material som publiceras på denna sida är enbart avsett för utbildnings- eller informationssyften och innehåller inte – och ska inte heller anses innehålla – rådgivning och rekommendationer om finansiella frågor, investeringsskatt eller handel, dokumentation av våra handelskurser eller ett erbjudande om, eller en uppmaning till, en transaktion i finansiella instrument eller oönskade finansiella erbjudanden som är riktade till dig.
Tredjepartsinnehåll, liksom innehåll framtaget av XM såsom synpunkter, nyheter, forskningsrön, analyser, kurser, andra uppgifter eller länkar till tredjepartssajter som återfinns på denna webbplats, tillhandahålls i befintligt skick, som allmän marknadskommentar, och utgör ingen investeringsrådgivning. I den mån som något innehåll tolkas som investeringsforskning måste det noteras och accepteras att innehållet varken har varit avsett som oberoende investeringsforskning eller har utarbetats i enlighet med de rättsliga kraven för att främja ett sådant syfte, och därför är att betrakta som marknadskommunikation enligt tillämpliga lagar och föreskrifter. Se till så att du har läst och förstått vårt meddelande om icke-oberoende investeringsforskning och riskvarning om ovannämnda information, som finns här.