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XM-анализ

Week Ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation

Traders see decent chance for 50bps Fed cut in September Powell adds extra importance to jobs data, NFP awaited BoC decides on rates, third consecutive cut is fully priced in Aussie traders lock gaze on GDP numbers   Bets for double Fed cut remain elevated Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts.
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Daily Comment – Markets cautious as Nvidia earnings and key US data loom

Dollar pauses slide as jobs and inflation data awaited Yen pulls back but hawkish BoJ signals keep it elevated Wall Street awaits Nvidia, oil retreats on demand worries Dollar awaits key data for direction The US dollar extended its slump against all its major peers on Tuesday, as in the absence of any top-tier data and shocking headlines, investors continued to digest Powell’s dovish stance at Jackson Hole.
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Market Comment – Markets position ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

Dollar rebounds despite jobless claims increase Traders position for Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Yen rebounds as BoJ’s Ueda appears willing to continue hiking rates Wall Street slips as tech shares weigh, gold pulls back Fed cut bets readjusted ahead of Powell’s speech The US dollar rebounded against all but one of its major peers on Thursday, with the only exception being the British pound.
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Market Comment – Dovish Fed and labor data weigh on dollar

Fed minutes reveal some members wanted a July cut Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by the most since 2009 PMIs in focus ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Wall Street gains ground, oil extends slide Dollar slips as traders ramp up Fed cut bets The dollar extended its slide against its major counterparts on Wednesday, as the minutes of the July 30-31 Fed gathering revealed that officials are strongly leaning towards a September rate cut, with some members being willing
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Market Comment – Dollar looks at the Fed minutes for a small boost

Dollar weakness dominates the FX space Today’s Fed minutes could halt the euro/dollar rally Markets are gearing up to the Powell's Jackson Hole speech Oil prices remain under pressure  Dollar underperformance continues The euro continues to take advantage of the US dollar’s weakness by trading to the highest level since December 2023. This pair has managed to quickly climb above the critical 1.1032-1.1095 area, which has acted as strong resistance in the recent pas
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Could Fed chief Powell finally reveal his hand at Jackson Hole? – Preview

The Jackson Hole Symposium will be held on August 22-24 Fed Chairman Powell speaks on Friday at 14:00 GMT Markets expect a dovish tone in support of a September rate cut Fed minutes and PMI surveys to set the scene Markets are gearing up for the Jackson Hole Symposium The much talked-about Jackson Hole Symposium is just a few days away with the markets anxiously waiting for Fed Chairman Powell’s speech.
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Volatility ebbs as recession fears evaporate – Volatility Watch

Besides EUR/USD, FX volatility subsides as markets digest rate path repricing Volatility in precious metals is still high, but oil enters calmer waters Stock indices and Bitcoin volatility at their bottom of their 30-day range Recession concerns from a weaker-than-expected July NFP report have been fading, though they led to notable adjustments in expectations about major central banks' interest rate paths. This week, investors are focused on Jerome Powell's Jackson H
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Market Comment – Dollar under pressure ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium

Stocks in the green again as investors await the Jackson Hole gathering Economists look for strong Fed easing in 2024 despite recession talk dissipating Dollar remains on the back foot against most currencies Aussie fails to benefit from hawkish minutes; loonie could suffer from weak CPI Stocks still in the green Stocks continue to enjoy green sessions as the market is counting down to Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chairman Powell.
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Was the recent stock market slump an overreaction? – Stock Markets

US indices took a hit after a soft NFP report sparked recessions fears But risk sentiment rebounded, and investors eagerly bought the dip What events may disrupt the market's supposed immunity to downside risks?   V-shaped recovery July’s softer-than-expected NFP report sent shockwaves across all asset classes as fears that the US economy is on the brink of a recession emerged.
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Market anxiety fades but volatility remains high – Volatility Watch

FX volatility smoothens a little bit as markets digest rate path repricing Volatility in commodities still high amid resurgence of geopolitical tensions Stock indices and Bitcoin still volatile while traders unwind bearish bets  Recession concerns from a weaker-than-expected NFP report two weeks ago have been fading, though they led to notable adjustments in expectations about major central banks' interest rate paths.
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US 500 cash index rebounds from 3-month low The price jumps above 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart Momentum indicators are tilted to the upside The US 500 stock index (cash) came under severe selling pressure last week, dropping to its lowest level since early May. However, the price seems to be in a recovery mode since its recent bottom, with the bulls reclaiming the 50-period simple moving average (SMA).
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Is the US data that bad to justify a rate cut?

The recent acute market reaction occurred due to increased recession fears Surprise indices point to a more balanced US economic situation Recessions tend to be caused by one-off major events The recent market drop has been attributed to higher chances of a US recession It has been a very volatile period in markets. The recent higher-than-expected rate hike by the BoJ caused a knee-jerk reaction in Japanese stock markets that led to the yen making significant gains across the boar
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Market Comment – Sentiment improves after drop in US jobless claims

US dollar gains as data ease further recession concerns Aussie benefits the most, also helped by RBA’s Bullock Wall Street rebounds, oil and gold gain as well   Jobless claims drop the most in nearly a year The US dollar ended Thursday mixed against the other major currencies, even though it received a boost from the better-than-expected initial jobless claims for last week.
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Market Comment – BoJ Summary of Opinions reveals hawkish mood

Yen pullback stopped by hawkish BoJ Summary Fed cut bets remain dovish, traders await next week’s data Tech shares drag Wall Street down again Gold rebounds, but remains well off its records Yen remains in the spotlight The yen remained in the spotlight yesterday, with dollar/yen extending its recovery by as much as 2.5% after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida played down the chance of another rate hike soon.
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Market angst pushes volatility higher across the board – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility skyrockets as recession fears resurface Volatility in commodities jumps as geopolitics takes centre stage Stock indices experience much stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, jumped to the highest level of the past month as fears of recession, on the back of last Friday’s weak US labour market report, resulted in the market pricing in an aggressive easing path for most central banks during 2024.
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Market Comment – Markets breathe easier but will it last?

Slightly more positive tone in equity markets today Fear of recession fuels Fed rate cut expectations Light calendar today, focus on data during Asian session RBA remains hawkish, considers rate hike US stock markets set the tone for recovery With the US stock markets recovering slightly yesterday, the overall market sentiment is more positive today.
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Market Comment – Dollar plummets as US jobs data spread panic

Disappointing US jobs data push dollar off the cliff Yen extends rally as fears over US economy mount Stocks drop, VIX rallies to levels seen more than a year ago NFP report disappoints, rate cut bets surge The US dollar plunged on Friday after the US employment report for July came in weaker than expected, raising fears about the performance of the US economy and prompting market participants to start believing that the Fed may need to cut interest rates by 50bps at the upcoming
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Volatility remains elevated across the board – Volatility Watch

Yen crosses are very volatile after BoJ hike aids yen's recovery Volatility in commodity sphere jumps amid geopolitical flare ups Global stock indices in turbulent waters but for different reasons   Volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the latest interest rate hike by the BoJ has added more fuel to the yen’s recovery from multi-year lows against major peers.
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Market Comment – BoJ hikes but Fed could make a dovish tilt

BoJ announces rate hike and bond tapering Focus turns to US data and the Fed Australian CPI fails to record a significant downside surprise Gold and oil jump higher due to Middle East developments BoJ hikes rates and announces bond tapering The Bank of Japan confirmed market expectations and announced a 15bps rate hike earlier today.
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Market Comment – Markets in waiting mode ahead of earnings releases and risk events

Key earnings releases and numerous central bank meetings coming up US stocks in waiting mode, dollar recovering across the board Key euro area data today but all eyes are on Wednesday's BoJ meeting Gold, oil and bitcoin move in parallel Stocks are mixed ahead of this week’s key events US stock indices were mixed yesterday as the market is preparing for this week’s big events.
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