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XM Research

XM Research - 31 minutes agoNeutral

Quick Brief – German CPI eases further

Preliminary German CPI drops to 1.6% yoy changeThe October ECB rate cut is almost a done dealEuro/dollar in the green again today The German preliminary inflation report for September produced a downside surprise by printing at 1.6%, against expectations for a 1.7% figure, following the 1.9% yoy increase recorded in August. The respective German states’ prints led by the North-Rhine Westphalia region, announced earlier today, somewhat prepared the market for this weaker CPI print.Following Fr
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XM Research - 40 minutes agoBearish

Technical Analysis – US dollar index meets another 14-month low

US dollar index remains bearish below 20-day SMAStochastic and RSI in negative territoriesThe US dollar index dived to another fresh 14-month low of 99.84 on Friday, continuing to hold beneath the short-term 20-day simple moving average (SMA). The downside pressure is also confirmed by the technical oscillators. The stochastic is pointing down near the 20 level, while the RSI is decreasing beneath the neutral threshold of 50.In case of a daily close below the 99.84 support could open the door fo
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XM Research - 3 hours agoBearish

Technical Analysis – US 500 calms down after hitting new record high

US 500 index climbed to new record highs last weekBut got rejected and has retreated a little sinceMACD and RSI look overboughtFollowing the bounce off the 5,385 support level, the US 500 (cash) index added more than 7%, reaching an all-time high of 5,772.52 last week. Technically, the index is sailing near overbought waters, according to the MACD oscillator.
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XM Research - 4 hours agoNeutral

EURCHF is in the green today, a tad below its 50-day SMAThe prevailing downward trend is still firmly in placeMomentum indicators are inconclusive at this stage EURCHF is trading higher, above the September 26, 2022 low at 0.9403 but a tad below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The bearish trend from the May 27, 2024 peak remains in place and has yet to be challenged.
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XM Research - 5 hours agoNeutral

Daily Comment – PCE inflation corroborates dovish Fed bets

Softer PCE data keep chances of another 50bps Fed cut elevatedFed Chair Powell speaks, ISM PMIs and NFP on this week’s agendaYen rally pauses after Ishiba says policy should stay accommodativeAussie, kiwi and Chinese stocks celebrate PBoC’s measuresMarket assigns decent chance for back-to-back 50bps Fed cutThe dollar slipped against most of its major peers after Friday’s data revealed that the headline PCE price index slowed more than expected in August, although the more important core PC
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XM Research - 5 hours agoNeutral

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD

First NFP report after Fed’s rate cut; USDJPY dives sharplyEurozone flash CPI in the spotlight with EURUSD standing below 1.1200BoJ Summary of Opinions on Tuesday; GBPJPY slightly recoup lossesNFP report --> USDJPYThis week’s Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data is crucial for gauging the US labor market’s health. Analysts expect the report, due on Friday, to show a moderate increase in job creation, reflecting ongoing economic stabilization.
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XM Research - 6 hours agoNeutral

Technical Analysis – Are we getting closer to a gold correction?

Gold is trading sideways today, but close to recent highsVolatility drops as a key US data week startsMomentum indicators are less bullish at this junctureGold is trading sideways today, a tad below its recent all-time high of 2,685. With the dollar remaining on the back foot, the market is preparing for an action-packed week with Friday’s non-farm payrolls figure being the highlight of the US data calendar.
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XM Research - 3 days agoNeutral

Quick Brief – PCE inflation data not a game changer

Headline PCE inflation slows, but core rate ticks upInvestors continue to expect 75bps of additional cuts this yearFocus now turns to next week’s ISM PMI and NFP dataThe headline PCE inflation rate dropped to 2.2% y/y in August, confounding expectations of a smaller drop to 2.3% from 2.5%. The more important core PCE rate ticked up to 2.7% y/y fr
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XM Research - 3 days agoNeutral

Technical Analysis – Ethereum hovers in the 2,650 area

Cryptos benefit from the improved risk sentimentEthereum is trading above the 50-day SMAMomentum indicators remain bullishEthereum is recording a green session today, recovering its mid-week weakness and testing the resistance set by the 2,667 level. The improved risk sentiment in equity markets has boosted demand for cryptocurrencies, helping ethereum to quickly bounce back from its early September trough and to climb above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).In the meantime, the momentum in
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XM Research - 3 days agoNeutral

Week Ahead – NFP on tap amid bets of another bold Fed rate cut

Investors see decent chance of another 50bps cut in NovemberFed speakers, ISM PMIs and NFP to shape rate cut betsEurozone CPI data awaited amid bets for more ECB cutsChina PMIs and BoJ Summary of Opinions also on tapWill the Fed opt for a back-to-back 50bps rate cut?Although the dollar slipped after the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 50bps and to signal that another 50bps worth of reductions are on the cards for the remainder of the year, the currency traded in a consolidative manner this
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XM Research - 3 days agoBearish

Technical Analysis – USDJPY plummets after hitting 50-day SMA

USDJPY falls back below downtrend lineMomentum oscillators shift southUSDJPY had a bullish start today, meeting the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 146.20 but returning quickly to the downside. The price fell back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the bearish move from 161.94 to 139.56 at 144.80, as well as the short-term descending trend line.From a technical perspective, the RSI is sloping down from the 50 level, while the stochastic posted a bearish crossover within its%K
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XM Research - 3 days agoNeutral

CHFJPY is trading lower today, a tad below a busy areaThis is the first red candle after a barrage of green sessionsMomentum indicators are inconclusive at this stage CHFJPY is well in the red today after testing but failing to close above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Importantly, ex-defence minister Ishiba’s win at the LDP leadership contest over minister Takaichi, a strong critic of BoJ's tightening strategy, has clearly contributed to yen’s strength, and put a stop to th
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XM Research - 3 days agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Markets maintain upbeat mood ahead of PCE inflation

China stimulus and rate cut bets propel stocks higherDollar caught in choppy trading as crucial inflation data awaitedYen surges as new LDP leader in favour of rate hikes set to become PMGold scales fresh record highs before easingMarkets lifted by China’s stimulus blitzEquity markets look set to finish the week in a buoyant mood amid renewed optimism about China’s economic prospects following Beijing’s latest stimulus efforts and as the Fed and ECB strive to achieve a soft landing.Earlier
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XM Research - 3 days agoNeutral

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY has an unstoppable rally to 2-month high

GBPJPY surpasses 50- and 200-day SMAsStochastic and RSI tick up in overbought regionsGBPJPY has created an aggressive bullish rally to a fresh two-month high of  195.95 over the last ten days following the strong rebound off the 183.70 support level. The market successfully surpassed the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 195.00 round nu
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XM Research - 3 days agoNeutral

Technical Analysis – Will the AUDUSD rally pause prove temporary?

AUDUSD continues to experience high volatilityIt tests the resistance set by a long-term trendlineMomentum indicators send a mixed message AUDUSD is trading sideways today, following three very volatile sessions that pushed it to the highest level since February 2023. It is currently testing the resistance set by the February 25, 2021 downward sloping trendline, with today’s US PCE report potentially proving pivotal in the outcome of this battle.
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XM Research - 4 days agoNeutral

Central banks easing: the race to the bottom has officially commenced

Fed to lead the easing spree in the fourth quarter of 2024A conservative approach is priced in for ECB and BoESNB, BoC and RBNZ to ease further; RBA could follow suitBoJ could surprise with another rate hike by year-end More rate cuts on the way in the fourth quarter of 2024Another round of central banks’ meetings has been completed with the Fed stealing the show by announcing the start of its easing cycle.
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XM Research - 4 days agoBearish

Technical Analysis – US dollar index may visit 14-month low again

US dollar index dived beneath 100.00 on Wednesday’s sessionTechnical oscillators tick downThe US dollar index has lost its positive momentum after rebounding off the 14-month low of 99.90. In the short term, the market could retain the bearish structure as the RSI ticks lower below the neutral level of 50, while the stochastic is heading down.If the price continues south, Wednesday's low of 99.90 could provide immediate support before the index touches the 99.25 bottom, taken from the lo
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XM Research - 4 days agoBullish

Technical Analysis – Silver on the verge of a major bullish trend reversal

Silver bulls roar back; make efforts to resume long-term uptrend above 32.49Price hovers near overbought zone; trend signals remain encouraging above 31.50Silver made a comeback on Thursday after a temporary pause, with scope to challenge May’s eleven-year high of 32.49, which it didn’t reach in July.The rebound near the broken resistance line at 30.60 indicated a bullish trend reversal recently, and although the RSI and stochastic oscillator are near overbought levels, they haven’t peaked
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XM Research - 4 days agoNeutral

Midweek Technical Look – USDJPY, GBPUSD, Gold

Gold follows bullish pattern; looks for fresh buying above 2,650  GBPUSD comes under pressure after 2½-year high; downside pressure may persistUSDJPY makes progress but is not out of the woods
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XM Research - 4 days agoBearish

Technical Analysis – USDJPY flirts with short-term diagonal line

USDJPY tries to surpass the 23.6% FibonacciMACD and RSI gain momentumUSDJPY is challenging the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 161.94 to 139.56 at 144.80, as well as the very short-term downtrend line, creating a bullish correction from the 14-month low of 139.56.The technical oscillators are currently mirroring the market's latest upside movement.
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