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Technical Analysis – US dollar index may visit 14-month low again



  • US dollar index dived beneath 100.00 on Wednesday’s session
  • Technical oscillators tick down

The US dollar index has lost its positive momentum after rebounding off the 14-month low of 99.90. In the short term, the market could retain the bearish structure as the RSI ticks lower below the neutral level of 50, while the stochastic is heading down.

If the price continues south, Wednesday's low of 99.90 could provide immediate support before the index touches the 99.25 bottom, taken from the lows in July 2023.

On the flip side, the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at 100.80 and slightly below the 101.15 resistance level, may halt upside movements as it did several times from mid-September, shifting the very short-term outlook to neutral. If traders continue to buy the index, the price could rise until the 50-day SMA at 101.90, which lies near the downtrend line.

In the medium-term picture, the dollar index has been trading bearish for the past three months after peaking at 105.80. Still, if the price manages to cross above the 200-day SMA at 103.50, the bearish outlook could switch into a bullish one.

To sum up, the market is expected to hold neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term.

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