Dollar consolidates after strongest week in two years
Updates as of 1526 EDT
By Chibuike Oguh and Alden Bentley
NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar stallednear a seven-week high on Monday as investors reassessed their positions after last week's strong U.S. jobs data and as fears that Middle East tensions would spill into a wider conflict drove bids for safe havens.
The closely-watched jobs report for September showed the biggest jump in nonfarm payrolls in six months, a drop in the unemployment rate and solid wage rises, prompting markets to scale back bets on further hefty U.S. rate cuts.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by just 25 bps in November, rather than 50 bps, following the jobs data. According to CME's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 85% chance of a quarter point cut, up from 47% a week ago, and a slim 0.15% prospect of no cut at all.
A rise in the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note US10YT=RR above 4% for the first time in two months was also a psychological support.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened after Atsushi Mimura, Japan's top currency diplomat, issued a warning against speculative moves on the foreign exchange market.
Dollar/yen JPY=EBS fell 0.49% on the day to 147.98 after hitting its highest since August 15 at 149.10 overnight.
"The market got cautious as we approached 150 on the yen, but I don't think this is a big move yet," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.
The dollar index =USD measuring the greenback against a basket of six currencies slipped 0.07% to 102.46, having risen on Friday to 102.69, its highest level since mid August.The dollar logged a weekly gain of more than 2% last week, its biggest in two years.
In the Middle East, Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel's third largest city Haifa early on Monday as Israeli forces looked poised to expand ground incursions into southern Lebanon on the first anniversary of the Gaza war, which has spread conflict across the region.
The euro was off just 0.01% at $1.0975 EUR=, feeling some pressure after German industrial orders fell significantly more than expected in August, adding to signs that manufacturing in Europe's largest economy remains in the doldrums.
Overall though the tone was still dollar-positive,along with currencies seen as flight-to-safety rivals on worries about the geopolitical picture.
"As you look across some of the more risk-sensitive currencies in the G10 space, you do have the dollar generally stronger, but a lot of the traditional safe havens -- yen, Swiss and the dollar -- are relative outperformers today," said Brian Daingerfield, foreign exchange strategist at NatWest Markets, New York.
"That does reflect equities turning a little bit lower here and oil prices having edged up further as the markets are watching very closely developments in the Middle East," he continued.
Against the Swiss franc CHF=, the dollar weakened 0.45% to 0.854.
The Canadian dollar CAD= weakened 0.37% versus the greenback to 1.36 per dollar.
Sterling GBP=D3 fell 0.25% to $1.3083. Last week it recorded its biggest daily fall since April after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was quoted as saying the central bank might move more aggressively to lower borrowing costs.
The Australian dollar AUD= weakened 0.6% versus the greenback and the kiwi NZD= weakened 0.63%.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin BTC= gained 1.49% to $63,334.40. Ethereum ETH= rose 1.13% to $2,456.20.
Currency bid prices at 7 October 03:26 p.m. EDT |
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Previous Session Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid |
Dollar index =USD 102.5 102.53 -0.03% 1.11% 102.62 102.36 |
Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS 1.0971 1.0976 -0.05% -0.61% $1.0987 $1.0955 |
Dollar/Yen JPY=D3148.08 148.775 -0.5% 4.96% 149.06 147.875 |
Euro/Yen EURJPY= 1.0971 163.16 -0.43% 4.39% 163.57 162.3 |
Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.8543 0.8583 -0.47% 1.5% 0.8603 0.8535 |
Sterling/Dollar GBP=D31.308 1.3123 -0.32% 2.79% $1.3133 $1.306 |
Dollar/Canadian CAD=D31.3629 1.3578 0.39% 2.83% 1.364 1.3551 |
Aussie/Dollar AUD=D30.6751 0.6793 -0.63% -1% $0.681 $0.6744 |
Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 0.9373 0.9416 -0.46% 0.94% 0.9429 0.9366 |
Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8386 0.8358 0.34% -3.28% 0.8399 0.8357 |
NZ Dollar/Dollar NZD=D30.6119 0.616 -0.63% -3.14% $0.6169 0.6113 |
Dollar/Norway NOK= 10.6456 10.6354 0.1% 5.04% 10.674 10.6128 |
Euro/Norway EURNOK= 11.6802 11.682 -0.02% 4.07% 11.7116 11.6454 |
Dollar/Sweden SEK= 10.3594 10.3681 -0.08% 2.9% 10.3822 10.3462 |
Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 11.3657 11.3789 -0.12% 2.16% 11.387 11.361 |
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York, Stefano Rebaudo and Vidya Ranganathan; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Ed Osmond, Chizu Nomiyama, Christina Fincher and Anna Driver
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