FX options wrap - GBP target, EUR/USD clues, JPY call demand
After increasing earlier in the week, broader G10 FX option implied volatility looks to have peaked for now, even JPY-related pairings, which spiked significantly higher as USD/JPY fell on Wednesday.
Bank of Japan balance sheet data suggests Wednesday's USD/JPY drop wasn't intervention. USD/JPY 1-month expiry implied volatility gained 0.9 to 10.0 on Wednesday and traded back at 9.75 on Thursday. There's been increased interest to buy JPY calls, lifting their premium over JPY puts on 1-month 25 delta risk reversals to recent highs around 1.8.
Options were betting on further GBP/USD gains toward well touted 1.3000 exotic barriers from the middle of last week. That demand and the GBP rally lifted benchmark 1-month GBP/USD implied volatility to 6.35 from post Brexit lows near 5.5 (now 6.2). 1-month risk reversals saw their GBP put over call premium hit long term lows at 0.2, but the drop back below 1.3000 saw buyers at that level on Thursday.
EUR/USD didn't add much volatility risk premium for what was expected to be an uneventful ECB policy announcement, with more massive expiries helping to contain FX in the low 1.09s. Implied volatility is only marginally above its long term lows, while shorter dated expiry risk reversals reflect a relatively neutral directional bias.
For more click on FXBUZ
GBP 1-month expiry 25 delta FXO risk reversal https://tmsnrt.rs/4cLb2T2
EUR/USD FX option strike expiries July 15-19 https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y6cM4z
FXO 1-month implied volatility https://tmsnrt.rs/3zPADM4
(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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