Technical Analysis – US 500 index halts decline, but will it pivot?
US 500 stock index pauses decline near 100-SMA, but negative risks remain
Breaking above 5,600 could positively impact buying sentiment
The US 500 stock index maintained support close to its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) for a second consecutive day, raising hopes that the current bearish phase may soon diminish.
From a technical perspective, there are still some negative developments that should be considered. The price could not reverse its latest bearish candlestick, remaining below its 20- and 50-day SMAs. Additionally, although the stochastic oscillator is preparing to exit its oversold region, the RSI continues to trend below its 50 neutral mark and the MACD is ready to step into the negative zone.
The first debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump today could be the last one before the US election. Hence the event could be the next catalyst, and buyers would like to see a decisive bounce above the 5,600 trendline area before charting a new record high likely near the former ascending line at 5,745. Further up, the price could face a tough test near the 6,000 psychological mark, which overlaps with the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downfall and the rising constraining line from December 2023.
Should the bears breach the floor between the 100-day SMA and the 50% Fibonacci number of 5,380, the door will open for the 38.2% Fibonacci of 5,312. If the latter fails to hold, the decline could stretch towards the tentative support trendline and the 23.6% Fibonacci of 5,235. Another violation there could immediately stall near the 200-day SMA at 5,180.
Overall, the current bounce-back in the US 500 doesn’t seem encouraging because the bears are still favored by the technical indicators. An extension above 5,600 could shift the odds to the bullish side.Related Assets
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
