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USDX-DEC24


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Technical Analysis – US dollar index retreats after strong bullish wave

US dollar index finds resistance at 200-day SMAStochastic and RSI edge downThe US dollar index is easing somewhat after the aggressive buying interest that started back in September 27. The price added almost 4% and recorded a fresh more-than-two-month high around 103.67, finding resistance at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).If the market overcomes the latter obstacle could endorse the bullish pressure towards the 104.50 resistance.
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Daily Comment – Stocks under pressure by chipmakers, pound slips on CPI drop

Chip stocks hit by selloff after ASML cuts 2025 guidanceDollar stretches gains as pound and kiwi fall on lower inflationOil steadier amid ongoing ME drama, gold heads towards fresh recordChip and AI stocks take a diveEquity markets suffered a setback on Tuesday after Dutch semiconductor giant, ASML, sparked panic about the demand outlook for chips when it accidentally published its earnings report a day early.
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Daily Comment – Wall Street hits new record after Fed minutes, CPI eyed next

Fed minutes show split over September cut but Wall Street ralliesDollar eases from near 2-month high as focus turns to CPI reportGold and oil steadier after recent lossesFed minutes add little clarity The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting published on Wednesday did little to end the uncertainty about the pace of rate reductions over the coming months.
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Daily Comment – Dollar seeks direction amidst tepid market conditions

Fed speakers and minutes in the spotlight todayDollar’s rally pauses, but oil and gold suffer lossesRBNZ cuts rates by 50bps, kiwi weakensChina schedules another press conference as local stocks plungeFed members continue to support a November rate cutThe public discussion regarding the Fed’s next steps continues, as a plethora of Fed members are on the wires almost on a daily basis.
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Daily Comment – Risk appetite ebbs as markets fret over China stimulus, Fed rate cuts

Risk sentiment dented as China refrains from fresh stimulus measuresFed officials give cautious green light to more rate cutsDollar and equities turn lower after recent gains as US CPI awaitedMarkets consolidate as China announcement disappointsOptimism about China’s newfound love for bold stimulus policies faded slightly on Tuesday as a much-anticipated press briefing by the country’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) ended without any significant new measures being announce
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Technical Analysis – Will US dollar index recover further?

US dollar index rises above downtrend lineNext resistance near 200-SMA Momentum oscillators look overstretchedThe US dollar index has been in a bullish corrective mode over the last five days, rebounding from the 14-month low of 99.84. The price successfully surpassed the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and the short-term descending trend line.However, the technical oscillators are mirroring the latest declining move indicating the end of the upside movement.
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Daily Comment – Will the dollar or stocks smile after the non-farm payrolls print?

Spotlight falls on the key US labour market dataNon-farm payrolls to rise by 140k, but could surprise to the upsideDollar to enjoy a strong set of data, equities prefer weaker printsEuro suffering continues, while both gold and oil advanceCould the US labour market data produce a surprise?The countdown to the most crucial set of US data during October is nearly over.
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Technical Analysis – US dollar index meets another 14-month low

US dollar index remains bearish below 20-day SMAStochastic and RSI in negative territoriesThe US dollar index dived to another fresh 14-month low of 99.84 on Friday, continuing to hold beneath the short-term 20-day simple moving average (SMA). The downside pressure is also confirmed by the technical oscillators. The stochastic is pointing down near the 20 level, while the RSI is decreasing beneath the neutral threshold of 50.In case of a daily close below the 99.84 support could open the door fo
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Quick Brief – PCE inflation data not a game changer

Headline PCE inflation slows, but core rate ticks upInvestors continue to expect 75bps of additional cuts this yearFocus now turns to next week’s ISM PMI and NFP dataThe headline PCE inflation rate dropped to 2.2% y/y in August, confounding expectations of a smaller drop to 2.3% from 2.5%. The more important core PCE rate ticked up to 2.7% y/y fr
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Technical Analysis – US dollar index may visit 14-month low again

US dollar index dived beneath 100.00 on Wednesday’s sessionTechnical oscillators tick downThe US dollar index has lost its positive momentum after rebounding off the 14-month low of 99.90. In the short term, the market could retain the bearish structure as the RSI ticks lower below the neutral level of 50, while the stochastic is heading down.If the price continues south, Wednesday's low of 99.90 could provide immediate support before the index touches the 99.25 bottom, taken from the lo
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