Tuesday data distraction: Services PMI accelerates, trade gap gapes
Main U.S. indexes green; Nasdaq out front, up 1.1%
All 11 major S&P 500 sectors positive; industrials lead
Euro STOXX 600 index up 0.1%
Dollar down; gold higher; crude up >1%; bitcoin up >4%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.36%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
TUESDAY DATA DISTRACTION: SERVICES PMI ACCELERATES, TRADE GAP GAPES
Mixed economic data provided welcome distractions on Election Tuesday.
Diving right in, the American services sector unexpectedly added some heat in October.
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) USNPMI=ECI added 1.1 points to an even 56.0 instead of decelerating to 53.8 as analysts expected.
That's the highest headline since August 2022 and marks its 20th month of the last 22 north of 50, the PMI dividing line between expansion and contraction.
Below the topline number, the employment component bounded into expansion territory, new orders eased a tad, supplier deliveries accelerated and the elevated prices paid index - an inflation predictor - pulled back a bit.
While "concerns over political uncertainty were again more prevalent than the previous month," according to Steve Miller, chair of ISM's Services Survey Committee, Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics writes "This latest data point suggests that services sector output is far from crashing."
"It is ironic that the biggest contributor to the rise in the index was the employment subindex," Weinberg adds. "Everyone seems to think the labor market is softening. This PMI says otherwise."
Not to be outdone, S&P Global also issued its final take on services PMI USMPSF=ECI, which came in a point lower than ISM at 55.0, shaving 0.3 points from its initial "flash" take released a few weeks ago.
ISM and S&P Global differ in the weight they apply to different PMI components.
This graphic shows the extend to which the dueling PMIs disagree (or not):
The international trade deficit USTBAL=ECI grew as expected in September.
The gap between the value of goods and services imported to the United States and those exported abroad widened by 19.2% to $84.4 billion, about $300 million to the north of consensus.
The scale of the move reflects robust domestic demand, sure, but also hits at the possibility that importers are eager to pad their inventories in anticipation of the higher tariffs that would likely occur if Trump is elected.
"The outcome of the election could add upside risk to imports if businesses seek to pre-empt potential tariff increases in the event of a second Donald Trump Presidency," writes Matthew Martin, senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
Trade has been a net drag on U.S. GDP for five of the last six quarters:
Breaking it down, imports (by far the bigger share of the trade pie) rose by 3.0% while exports declined 1.2%.
The goods deficit increased by 14.9% while the services surplus grew by 2.5%.
While closely watched goods trade gap with China yawned 14.1% wider, the U.S. still imported more from Mexico, which barely held onto its lead over China with respect to value of goods imported to the United States:
(Stephen Culp)
*****
FOR TUESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
WILL IT BE RED OR BLUE? ACTUALLY, IT'S ALL GREEN EARLY ON ELECTION DAY - CLICK HERE
S&P 500 INDEX: VOTING WITH ITS FEET? - CLICK HERE
U.S. ELECTION AND ITS IMPACT ON THE FED'S STEPS - CLICK HERE
IS BULLISH POSITIONING A RISK, GOING INTO US VOTE? - CLICK HERE
WHY EURO AREA INFLATION COULD STAY BELOW 2% FOR LONG - CLICK HERE
STOCKS HOLD THEIR BREATH AS AMERICA VOTES - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN FUTURES STEADY AS ELECTION DAY ARRIVES - CLICK HERE
MARKETS BUCKLE UP FOR ELECTION DAY - CLICK HERE
ISM services PMI https://reut.rs/48ET1ok
Dueling PMIs https://reut.rs/40B5UNY
Trade balance and GDP https://reut.rs/48E7Jvq
Imports from China vs Mexico https://reut.rs/4hCxnos
Mga Kaugnay na Asset
Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.
