Europe Inc set to clear lower earnings bar; wait-and-see on China stimulus
Analysts cut European Q3 earnings estimates at fastest pace in seven months
Investors cautiously optimistic on China stimulus despite lack of details
Cheap valuations, light positioning offer opportunities
Updates to include LVMH results in paragraph 6 and ASML in paragraph 7
By Samuel Indyk and Medha Singh
LONDON, Oct 16 (Reuters) -Analysts have downgraded estimates for European corporate earnings at the fastest pace in seven months this week, setting a lower bar for beats, while more optimism over the global outlook might spare shares from severe punishment for misses.
Third-quarter earnings are expected on average to have increased 3.7% from a year ago, according to data from LSEG I/B/E/S, driven by growth in materials, financials, and utilities.
However, the ratio of downgrades to upgrades of analysts' European earnings estimates has reached its highest since February as the region's economy struggles to generate meaningful growth.
"Expectations have come down quite a bit, particularly with the economy weakening," said Frederique Carrier, head of investment strategy at RBC Wealth Management.
"If numbers are better than expected, I would expect the market to react quite positively," Carrier said.
As third-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, this theory is facing a tough test. Shares in French luxury group LVMH LVMH.PA dropped on Wednesday by the most in a year, down 6%, after reporting weak quarterly sales.
And late on Tuesday, Dutch tech company ASML's ASML.AS results showed earnings beat expectations, but a downbeat outlook triggered the largest one-day sell-off in its shares since 1998.
In the second quarter, earnings misses were punished more than they had been historically. However, some analysts believe this quarter might be different, as investors turn more optimistic about the global growth outlook.
"Investors are happy to look through the China weakness," said Georges Debbas, head of European equity & derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas.
China is a critical market for many European sectors and Beijing's recent announcements of large-scale stimulus measures, although light on details, have offered some hope that the world's second-largest economy can again drive global growth.
Finance Minister Lan Foan pledged over the weekend that Beijing would do more to stimulate economic growth, which data due on Friday is expected to confirm remained subdued in the third quarter.
The health of China's economy matters more for European companies that depend more on exports than their U.S. rivals, which generate most of their revenue in their vast home market.
But many investors say they remain cautious until they see further details about China's stimulus plans, including the size of the proposed package.
"There will be hope that the stimulus package can be positive for companies that have suffered from weak consumption in China," said Josephine Cetti, chief strategist at Nordea.
"(But) I don't think companies will change estimates based on what we've seen, because we haven't seen anything concrete yet."
RELATIVELY CHEAP
Among consumer-facing industries hit especially hard by weakness in China are luxury retailers, such as LVMH and Kering PRTP.PA, and automakers.
Investors have been shunning Europe's auto sector .SXAP because of softening volume growth and heightened competition from China, particularly in electric vehicles, despite valuations close to record lows compared to the benchmark STOXX 600 index.
"The auto sector for us has been uninvestable for years," said Eddie Kennedy, head of bespoke discretionary fund management at Marlborough, citing high capex spending, low margins and increased competition.
More broadly, though, cheap valuations and light positioning offer opportunities for investors.
While the STOXX 600 .STOXX is within 1.5% of record highs, European companies trade close to a record discount against their U.S. counterparts at about 37%, based on the price-to-earnings ratio.
"Valuations are relatively attractive," said Ben Ritchie, head of developed markets equities at abrdn.
"I don't think we'll see anything in the third quarter that will change that picture."
Investor positioning in Europe is also broadly neutral according to most metrics. Citi strategists highlight that investors are slightly net short Eurostoxx futures, one of just three indexes from a number that they track that has a net short position against the backdrop of mostly bullish equity positioning.
"It's not like S&P 500, which is trading at extremely high valuations, extremely high positioning, extremely high overcrowdedness that if a big AI scare happens, you could see a large correction," BNP Paribas's Debbas said about the STOXX 600.
"In Europe, I don't think that's going to be the case."
STOXX 600 net earnings revisions https://reut.rs/3BWClvS
European stocks trade close to record discount vs. U.S. https://reut.rs/4h4iBXw
Reporting by Samuel Indyk and Medha Singh in London; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Tomasz Janowski
Mga Kaugnay na Asset
Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.
