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Forint underperforms as dollar strength pressures emerging markets



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By Anita Komuves

BUDAPEST, Oct 10 (Reuters) -Hungary's forint weakened past the psychological 400-per-euro level again on Thursday, underperforming regional peers as it was pressured by dollar gains while a central bank deputy governor dampened rate cut expectations for this year.

The currency EURHUF=, central Europe's worst performer so far this year, weakened 0.5% on the day to trade at 400.55 per euro as it was pressured by a stronger dollar and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, two traders in Budapest said.

"Both the forint and the zloty gave up their gains from the previous two session," one trader said.

The forint was hovering near an 18-month low hit last week, when it was pressured by tensions in the Middle East and a shift in the U.S. interest rate outlook.

Deputy Central Bank Governor Barnabas Virag flagged a likely pause in the National Bank of Hungary's (NBH) rate cuts on Thursday in an interview with Reuters.

"The developments which have unfolded since the end of September justify that in this environment the scope for decisions has definitely shifted towards pausing the rate cut cycle," Virag said.

A second trader said that most market participants now expect the NBH to keep rates unchanged at the Oct. 22 meeting.

"If they do not cut, that could calm the market," he said. "What worries me is whether the government will put pressure on the bank to cut further," he said.

Faced with a weak recovery from last year's recession, Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government has called on the NBH to cut rates more sharply, though the veteran leader has toned down his pressure on the bank ahead of an NBH leadership change in March.

Data published on Thursday showed Hungarian inflation falling to the central bank's 3% target for the first time since January 2021. In the Czech Republic, consumer prices jumped 2.6% year-on-year, more than expected.

The crown EURCZK= edged up 0.09% on the day to trade at 25.322 per euro, but remained close to near two-month lows hit last week.

Falling financing costs in Hungary and the Czech Republic have been a drag on the countries' currencies while stable rates in Poland support the zloty, even though a strengthening dollar weighs on all of the region's currencies.

The zloty EURPLN= dipped 0.26% on the day to trade at 4.305 per euro.

Investors were also eyeing inflation data from the U.S. scheduled to be released later in the day.




CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1156 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.3220

25.3450

+0.09%

-2.45%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

400.5500

398.5500

-0.50%

-4.34%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3050

4.2940

-0.26%

+0.92%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9757

4.9760

+0.01%

-0.03%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0000

117.0600

+0.05%

+0.21%


Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1591.70

1586.8800

+0.30%

+12.57%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

73838.05

74011.67

-0.23%

+21.80%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2309.64

2321.28

-0.50%

-1.42%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

17612.32

17656.26

-0.25%

+14.58%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3180

0.0510

+104bps

+3bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6400

0.0640

+150bps

+5bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.9120

0.0340

+164bps

+2bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.9100

0.0140

+263bps

-1bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.2130

0.0290

+307bps

+1bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.4840

-0.0120

+321bps

-3bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.78

3.47

3.30

4.17


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.15

5.84

5.57

6.31


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.78

5.45

4.95

5.86


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices





**************************************************************





Writing by Anita Komuves
Editing by Mark Potter

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/ Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX= Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX= Other news and reports World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
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