US natgas rebounds over 3% on warmer weather outlook, short covering
Adds latest prices
Aug 6 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures gained more than 3% on Tuesday as forecasts for a return to warmer-than-usual weather in the coming weeks that could boost the amount of gas power generators burn, prompting some short covering from traders.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 6.8 cents, or about 3.5%, to settle at $2.01 per million British thermal units.
Prices fell more than 1% to a one-week low on Monday on forecasts for lower demand and against a backdrop of falling global stock markets.
"Despite some cooling across much of the mid continent within the next few days, partially due to the effects of Hurricane Debby along the East Coast, a return to broad based warmer than normal trends across virtually the entire U.S.next week will continue to offer near term price support," energy advisory Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
"Some strengthening in European gas pricing is also being supportive as has been the recent recovery in export activity but for now, elevated production near 103 bcfd (billion cubic feet per day)remains as an upside price limiter that will likely be prompting some larger than normal storage injections," Ritterbusch said.
Financial firm LSEG estimated 221 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly lower from 225 CDDs estimated on Monday. The normal for this time of year is 191 CDDs.
Cooling degree days, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to an average of 103.8 bcfdso far in August, up from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices edged up, rebounding slightly after losses in the previous session, but supply remains healthy and demand largely flat. NG/EU
Hurricane Debby made landfall as a Category 1 storm in the Big Bend region of Florida's Gulf Coast on Monday morning and began a slow crawl across the state. More than 113,000 homes and businesses in Florida were left without electricity as Debby, now a tropical storm, slammed into the state's Gulf Coast, according to data from PowerOutage.us. FBOX/
However, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to fall from 110.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 104.9 bcfd next week.
Meanwhile, Japanese city gas provider Osaka Gas 9532.T signed a long-term Heads of Agreement(HOA) with UAE's ADNOC [RIC:RIC:ADNOC.UL] for the delivery of up to 0.8 million metric tons per annum of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to secure stable supplies.
Week ended Aug 2 Forecast | Week ended July 26 Actual | Year ago Aug 2 | Five-year average Aug 2 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +30 | +18 | +25 | +38 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,279 | 3,249 | 2,022 | 2,846 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 15.2% | 15.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 1.93 | 1.89 | 2.65 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.92 | 11.20 | 11.21 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.45 | 12.52 | 12.43 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 221 | 225 | 222 | 198 | 191 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 227 | 231 | 224 | 200 | 195 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.5 | 103.8 | 104.0 | 102.3 | 96.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.7 | 8.1 | 7.8 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.3 | 111.9 | 111.8 | N/A | 103.7 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.3 | 6.9 | 7.1 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 11.8 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 7.7 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 47.9 | 51.0 | 45.9 | 48.3 | 43.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.7 | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.3 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 84.9 | 88.6 | 83.6 | 84.8 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 105.8 | 110.0 | 104.9 | N/A | 96.1 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 77 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Aug 9 | Week ended Aug 2 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 5 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 48 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 19 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 17 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.83 | 1.89 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.41 | 1.63 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.25 | 3.39 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.23 | 1.48 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.71 | 1.90 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.50 | 1.75 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.89 | 2.75 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.30 | 1.12 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.64 | 0.82 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 33.50 | 53.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 57.75 | 45.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 130.25 | 45.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 70.50 | 85.67 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 82.25 | 125.83 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 80.50 | 62.50 |
Reporting by Rahul Paswan and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Marguerita Choy
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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