Strong open eyed after US inflation see-saw
By Jamie McGeever
Sept 12 (Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
The see-saw nature of U.S. market reactions to the latest U.S. inflation figures on Wednesday highlighted investors' general skittishness right now, as they try to predict whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points next week.
At the market close, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had posted healthy gains and chalked up their third daily rise, the VIX 'fear index' had fallen for a third day, and Treasury yields bounced back from new cycle lows to end higher across the curve.
There was something for everyone in the CPI data, which is perhaps why the bond market swung so much. Core inflation rose a hotter-than-expected 0.3% while the annual headline rate fell to 2.5%, the lowest since February 2021.
It may be a similar picture in Asia on Thursday, although the market open will probably be strong as investors take the baton from Wall Street. Japanese futures point to the Nikkei opening around 1.5% higher.
The yen on Wednesday surged to its strongest level against the dollar this year after Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa said the central bank will raise rates again if inflation moves in line with policymakers' forecasts.
That echoed recent remarks from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, so nothing new, and the dollar ultimately clawed back nearly all its losses. But the yen's spike perhaps indicates how sensitive the market is to the prospect of the U.S.-Japanese interest rate gap narrowing.
The BOJ is only expected to raise rates a further 25 basis points by the end of next year. But signals that the BOJ is still prepared to tighten policy amid bursts of global market volatility and as other central banks cut rates are yen-supportive right now.
In that context, Japan's wholesale price inflation for August will be watched closely on Thursday. The annual rate of inflation is expected to have slowed to 2.8% from 3.0% in July, with the monthly rate evaporating to 0.0% from 0.3%.
The wholesale price index in July hit a record high for the eighth straight month.
The Asian economic calendar's other main point of focus on Thursday is Indian inflation. Economists polled by Reuters expect consumer price inflation essentially held steady at a five-year low of 3.5% in August.
That would mark the second month in a row that annual inflation has held below the Reserve Bank of India's 4.0% medium-term target, but the weak rupee will ensure policymakers don't get complacent.
A separate Reuters poll showed inflation averaging 4.2% this quarter, accelerating to 4.5%-4.7% in the coming quarters and back above the central bank's target. Money markets are only pricing in one quarter-point rate cut from the RBI this year.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Thursday:
- Japan wholesale inflation (August)
- India CPI inflation (August)
- India industrial production (July)
Yen strengthens, funds turn bullish https://tmsnrt.rs/3Xf9dqI
Asian currencies bounce back vs dollar https://tmsnrt.rs/3TlURE3
Indian inflation - CPI vs WPI https://tmsnrt.rs/47vudOP
Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Bill Berkrot
Mga Kaugnay na Asset
Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.
