New Zealand cranks fossil power output as hydro squeeze drags on: Maguire
Repeats column with no changes to text
By Gavin Maguire
LITTLETON, Colorado, Aug 27 (Reuters) -Power generators in New Zealand have lifted output from fossil fuels to the highest in three years so far in 2024, as they struggle to offset the largest year-over-year drop in generation from hydro dams in roughly a decade.
Total fossil fuel-fired electricity generation from January through July was 4.36 terawatt hours (TWh), according to energy think tank Ember.
That total was 1.75 TWh or 67% higher than during the same months in 2023, and nearly matched the 1.86 TWh drop in generation from the country's hydro dams during the same period.
Hydro power is New Zealand's main source of electricity generation, and normally accounts for around 58% of the country's annual electricity supplies.
However, hydro's share of total generation dropped to just 48.6% in July - the lowest monthly reading in at least a decade - as sustained drought has curbed hydro production and forced power generators to lift output from other sources.
PRICE PAIN
Tight power supplies have also triggered a surge in wholesale power prices, which scaled all-time highs earlier this month and are up over 180% since the start of 2024.
New Zealand's power prices are also more than double those in neighbour Australia, and mean New Zealand's homes and businesses pay some of the highest energy bills in the region.
In an attempt to alleviate potential power shortages and reduce price pressure, New Zealand's government has reversed a ban on offshore oil and gas exploration and has pledged to fast-track approvals for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
However, those measures may take years to materially impact gas supplies to power producers, so power suppliers will likely continue to face tight supplies of generation fuels for the remainder of 2024 at least.
RENEWABLE GROWTH
The quickest possible path to a sustained recovery in power generation levels would be if there was a change to the region's weather systems which triggered more rainfall.
An El Nino weather pattern over the Indian and Pacific oceans has caused drier than normal conditions across much of Australia and New Zealand so far this year, resulting in New Zealand's drought readings.
But there is a 60%-70% chance of a La Nina pattern forming during the latter months of the year, according to the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), which could bring more rains across Oceania.
Any sustained rebound in rainfall would result in a commensurate rise in hydro generation, and higher overall electricity output.
Further growth to New Zealand's solar generation sector is another path to higher clean electricity output.
Installed solar capacity as of the end of July was 455 megawatts, according to the New Zealand electricity authority EMI.
That total is up from 295 MW in July 2023, and so marks a more than 50% increase in generation capacity within a year.
Installation data also indicates that roughly 40 MW of new capacity has been installed since the end of last summer, and so stands to make a notable impact on generation totals during the upcoming southern hemisphere summer when solar output peaks.
Roughly 44 MW of total installed solar capacity has battery storage, and so is capable of discharging that power into the national grid system even after the sun sets.
In combination, that higher solar capacity footprint alongside more regular rainfall could help New Zealand's power firms boost overall supplies from the current stunted generation levels.
But New Zealand's total electricity demand also looks set to climb towards the end of the year due to greater demand for cooling systems during the summer, and so may keep pressure on the country's power network even if overall supplies mount a rebound.
In that case, power producers will likely continue to deploy growing volumes of fossil fuels within the generation mix despite ongoing efforts to reduce overall power sector emissions.
<The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.>
Lower output from hydro dams has spurred New Zealand power firms to lift generation from fossil fuels https://tmsnrt.rs/3XiHPt8
New Zealand vs Australia wholesale baseload power prices 2014 – Present https://tmsnrt.rs/3ZjAj2X
New Zealand hydro electricity generation falls to multi-years lows in 2024 https://tmsnrt.rs/3AGBJu1
Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Jacqueline Wong
Mga Kaugnay na Asset
Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.
