Hindi nagbibigay ng serbisyo ang XM sa mga residente ng Estados Unidos.

Fed's actions spoke louder than words in inflation fight, research shows



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>Fed's actions spoke louder than words in inflation fight, research shows</title></head><body>

By Howard Schneider

JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming, Aug 24 (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve's credibility in the eyes of financial markets helped in its battle against inflation over the past two years, but it had to be earned afresh with interest rate hikes that backed up policymakers' verbal promises to restore price stability, according to new research presented at the Kansas City Fed's annual research conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

A strong perception in financial markets that a central bank is committed to inflation control can make monetary policy more effective, prompting markets to shift financial conditions faster and lowering inflation with a less serious hit to economic growth than would otherwise be the case.

While investors came to believe that the U.S. central bank under the leadership of Fed ChairJerome Powell was serious about defending its 2% inflation target, that belief only formed over time and after the officials began raising the policy interest rate in March of 2022 and accelerated the rate hikes over that summer, the researchers found.

"Forecasters and markets were highly uncertain about the monetary policy rule prior to 'liftoff' and learned about it from the Fed's rate hikes," economists Michael Bauer from the San Francisco Fed, Carolin Pflueger from the University of Chicago, and Adi Sunderam from the Harvard Business School, found in their research. "Substantial rate hikes were apparently necessary for perceptions to shift ... The public did not fully understand the Fed's strategy and policy rule prior to liftoff."

The research serves as a warning of sorts against central bankers putting too much weight on the power of "talk therapy" - or the ability to influence economic outcomes with words and promises alone.


EARNING PUBLIC TRUST

The Fed in recent years has been characterized by a surfeit of speeches and public comments by its officials, whether by the head of the central bank, other members of its presidentially-appointed Board of Governors, or its 12 regional bank presidents, under the notion that more transparency is good for public accountability and makes policy more effective.

Fed officials in the recent inflation battle often noted that public belief in their commitment to the inflation target would help on its own to lower the pace of price increases, shorten the time it took for tighter monetary policy to have an impact, and lower inflation with less damage to the job market and other aspects of the "real" economy.

The researchers found, however, that while the Fed under Powell eventually earned the benefit of public trust, it also wasn't a given.

The research used survey data to quantify how professional forecasters perceived the Fed would respond to higher inflation, and found that even as prices began rising in 2021 the expected Fed response to inflation was near zero.

While that could have been attributed to a number of factors, including a belief that inflation would ease on its own, the researchers concluded it was actually because forecasters actually weren't sure how the central bank would react.

After the first rate increase in March of 2022, however, perceptions began to shift, with forecasters eventually expecting the Fed to respond on an almost one-for-one basis to any rise in inflation.

The change in perceptions coincided with policymakers shifting from the initial quarter-percentage-point move to the first of four 75-basis-point hikes in June of 2022, and with a stern speech by Powell at that year's Jackson Hole conference that reaffirmed his intent to defend the inflation target despite the economic pain it might cause.

As market perceptions about the Fed's sensitivity to inflation increased, "interest rates became significantly more sensitive to inflation data surprises," the research found, adding that "the increase in the perceived inflation response likely aided the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy and improved the Fed's inflation-unemployment tradeoff."

For future policymakers, the researchers said, the conclusion is clear: actions speak louder than words.

"Policy rate actions contribute to, and may even be necessary for, the effectiveness of communication, particularly when uncertainty about the monetary policy framework is high," they found, suggesting the Fed's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections could be changed to make the central bank's "reaction function" more explicit. "A timely policy rate response to inflation matters not only for influencing immediate financial conditions, but also for signaling that policymakers are serious."



Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao

</body></html>

Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.

Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.

Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.

Babala sa Risk: Maaaring malugi ang iyong kapital. Maaaring hindi nababagay sa lahat ang mga produktong naka-leverage. Mangyaring isaalang-alang ang aming Pahayag sa Risk.