Large bets in election prediction market are from overseas, source says
By Michelle Conlin
NEW YORK, Oct 18 (Reuters) -Four accounts on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket that placed large bets on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 election, and have been the subject of much online speculation, are owned by non-Americans or a non-American, according to a source familiar with the matter on Friday.
Opinion polls indicate a likely close match between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the vote on Nov. 5. However, the odds have diverged on Polymarket, with Trump pulling strongly ahead at a 60% chance of winning versus Harris on 40%.
The trade was driven by four accounts that placed more than $30 million worth of bets, according to the source, confirming an earlier story in the Wall Street Journal.
Political pundits and social media users have questioned whether specific high-profile Americans could be behind the moves.
But Polymarket does not allow Americans to make U.S. election bets on the exchange, and the source confirmed that Polymarket's users are international. The source said the company certifies all of its large traders to ensure they are not logging in via VPNs to obscure which country they are in.
Reuters could not immediately determine if the four accounts represent a single trader or many.
Given the size and impact of the bets, Polymarket is investigating the activity in partnership with outside experts, the person said, confirming the Wall Street Journal's reporting. A $30 million bet on Trump on Polymarket would be equivalent to about 1% of trading volume on the platform related to the presidential race.
Americans have faced steep restrictions on betting on U.S. elections online. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has previously rejected applications to offer contracts or derivatives that allow Americans to bet on elections.
CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam said in a September 2023 statement that such event contracts would effectively turn the agency into an "election cop," a duty for which the CFTC lacked a mandate.
"It makes sense for the CFTC to have authority to combat fraud, manipulation, and false reporting in underlying commodity markets," Behnam said at the time. "But it is impractical for the CFTC to combat them in the underlying market here - a political contest."
Proponents argued the contracts could be a valuable new financial tool to provide insight on the future.
In November 2023, Kalshi, another betting exchange, sued the CFTC over its ban on U.S. election betting. A federal appeals court sided with Kalshi on Oct. 2, paving the way for Americans to start trading on political races just one month ahead of the election.
Kalshi has Trump at 57% and Harris at 43%.
In an emailed statement, Kalshi said: "Our stance on Trump's surge in odds is that it's all part of normal market activity. Trump is simply gaining popularity, and prediction markets aggregate information from a wider audience at a faster pace than polls."
The CFTC did not respond to requests for comment.
Reporting by Michelle Conlin; additional reporting by Hannah Lang and Noel Randewich; editing by Megan Davies and Rosalba O'Brien
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.
