Jobs report drill-down: Soft, yes, but 50-basis-points soft?
Major stock indexes down: Nasdaq tumbles >2%
All 11 S&P sectors red; tech down most
STOXX 600 reverses, slides ~1.2%
Dollar ~flat; gold, oil down; bitcoin down >3%
U.S. 10-yr Treasury yield dips to 3.68%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
JOBS REPORT DRILL-DOWN: SOFT, YES, BUT 50-BASIS-POINTS SOFT?
Market participants got what they were waiting for on Friday, in the form of the Labor Department's hotly anticipated employment report.
As for those betting on the size of the Fed's rate cut this month, the mixed report provided fodder for both the doves and the hawks.
The U.S. economy added 142,000 jobs USNFAR=ECI last month, or 11.3% fewer than analysts expected.
This stands on the shoulders of July's downwardly revised 89,000 job gains (the originally stated 114,000 was low enough to convince investors that the sky was falling and prompt a steep sell-off, one might recall).
It marks the third consecutive month that payrolls fell short of estimates, and the fourth of the last five that landed south of the 200,000 mark.
Digging below the topline, the service sector was responsible for 91.5% of the 118,000 total private job adds, with manufacturing and retail sectors shedding 24,000 and 11,100, respectively.
"The labor market is cooling at a measured pace," writes Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "Shortly after this release, markets were pricing in a slightly higher chance of a 50 basis point cut at the next Fed meeting compared to yesterday’s pricing."
"However, our view is the Fed will likely cut by 25 basis points and reserve the right to be more aggressive in the last two meetings of the year," Roach adds.
At last glance, financial markets have baked in a 51% likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut at its upcoming September meeting, and a 41% chance of a super-sized 50 bp decrease, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
But as hiring cools, wage growth is heating up.
Average hourly earnings growth rose on monthly and annual bases by 0.4% and 3.8%, respectively.
Both readings were 20 basis points hotter than consensus.
But remember, retail and manufacturing jobs - usually not the highest paying gigs - actually decreased last month, which could have pushed average hourly wages higher.
At any rate, it's the first taste of August inflation and it reiterates the notion that while the overall trend is back toward Powell & Co's 2% annual target, the road is strewn with rocks and detours.
The unemployment rate USUNR=ECI ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3% as expected, even as the labor market participation rate held firm at 62.7%.
This suggests that while the labor market is evidently cooling, it's not exactly sailing over a cliff, which gives the Fed some latitude regarding the size of its expected rate cut at this month's policy meeting.
"The speed at which the Fed will travel with regards to policy rates remains unclear," says Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management. "Investors remain divided on how quickly the Fed should lower rates and the mixed employment data today did not augment the argument for either side, which is why the odds of a 50 basis point cut at the September meeting looks like a coin toss for now."
Broken down by duration, the freshly unemployed saw their slice of the total jobless pie increase, from 33.0% to 34.3%, lending some cred to Thursday's jump in planned layoffs as reported by Challenger Gray.
Average unemployment duration inched higher though, to 20.8 weeks from 19.6, hinting at the possibility that jobs aren't as plentiful anymore, echoing the Conference Board's most recent Consumer Confidence report.
Viewed by race/ethnicity, the Black unemployment rate dipped 20 basis points to 6.1%, while White joblessness held firm at 3.8%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point narrowing of the White/Black jobless gap.
Unemployment among Asian Americans and those who identify as Hispanic jumped higher; to 4.3% and 5.5%, respectively.
(Stephen Culp)
*****
FRIDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
ETHEREUM, ANY TAKERS? - CLICK HERE
S&P 500 E-MINIS NEAR FLAT, PARE LOSSES AFTER US PAYROLLS - CLICK HERE
"BINARY" OUTCOME LIKELY FOR JOBS REPORT - CLICK HERE
THE BARNIER EFFECT - CLICK HERE
STOXX 600 FALLS BEFORE PAYROLLS TEST - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN FUTURES SLIP BEFORE HOTLY ANTICIPATED JOBS REPORT - CLICK HERE
ALL ABOUT THEM PAYROLLS - CLICK HERE
premarket snapshot https://tmsnrt.rs/4cYhhSJ
Nonfarm payrolls https://reut.rs/3AUseHC
Inflation gauges https://reut.rs/3Xykm7y
Labor market participation https://reut.rs/4egWElT
Unemployment by duration https://reut.rs/3XyHrqQ
Unemployment by race and ethnicity https://reut.rs/4cXW2Ay
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.