Why Thailand's judges are front and centre in its tumultuous politics
Changes dates in lead and dateline
BANGKOK, Aug 14 (Reuters) -Thailand's Constitutional Court will on Wednesday rule on the fate of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, a week after it dissolved 2023 election winner Move Forward, underlining the judiciary's central role in the country's long-running battle for power.
The two cases have heightened political uncertainty and raised concerns about potential upheaval in Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy, which has seen two decades of intermittent turmoil, with multiple parties disbanded and governments toppled by court rulings and military coups.
THE CASE AGAINST SRETTHA
Srettha faces dismissal after senators, who were hand-picked by a military junta, complained he violated the constitution by appointing to cabinet a former lawyer who was once jailed. The senators, whose terms have expired, said the appointment did not meet ethical requirements.
Pichit Chuenban, who represented the politically powerful Shinawatra family that founded Srettha's ruling Pheu Thai party, was found in contempt of court over an alleged attempt to bribe court staff, which was never proven.
Srettha denies wrongdoing and says Pichit, who has since resigned, was thoroughly vetted. Srettha's chief-of-staff told Reuters he expects him to survive the process.
WHAT IF SRETTHA IS DISMISSED?
Tycoon Srettha's case is among the factors that have increased uncertainty and roiled financial markets, compounding his struggle to revive the economy. Srettha has also faced delays in implementing his signature $12.8 billion handout scheme, and is facing falling popularity.
If he leaves, a new government must be formed and Pheu Thai would need to submit a new candidate for premier to be voted on by parliament, with no guarantees that they will succeed.
The vote could pit Pheu Thai against coalition partners, or lead to concessions in return for parliamentary votes, both of which could result in a shakeup of the governing alliance and a realignment of cabinet and policies.
WHO COULD BE PM IF SRETTHA EXITS?
Only those designated prime ministerial candidates by their parties before the last election can be nominated for premier.
They include Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Pheu Thai leader and daughter of influential billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, former Justice Minister Chaikasem Nitisiri, Interior Minister and deputy premier Anutin Charnvirakul, Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga and Prawit Wongsuwon, an influential former army chief who was involved in two coups.
WHAT HAPPENED TO MOVE FORWARD?
The Constitutional Court on Aug. 7 disbanded Move Forward over its campaign to amend a law on royal insults that protects the monarchy from criticism. Its 11 party executives received 10-year political bans.
Judges said it improperly used the royal family to gain an election advantage, putting the palace in conflict with the people. The party, which was ordered to cease the campaign by the same court in January, maintains it has not undermined the crown, but wanted to stop the law from being abused.
Move Forward won most seats in the last election but was blocked from forming a government by lawmakers allied with the royalist military. Its dissolution was criticised by major Western powers.
HOW HAS THE PARTY RESPONDED?
The surviving 143 Move Forward lawmakers on Friday formed a new vehicle, People's Party, which will be the biggest in parliament. It is led by Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, 37, a cloud software executive who was involved in a digital campaign strategy that won Move Forward massive support.
Natthaphong has promised the same platform and, controversially, to revive the campaign to reform the law on royal insults, but address the issue with caution.
HOW WILL IT BE RECEIVED?
People's Party will likely inherit and try to build on Move Forward's huge urban and progressive base, making it a formidable force for the next election.
But it is certain to clash with Thailand's old elite among the conservative establishment, the royalist military top brass, and wealthy families that benefit from the business monopolies Move Forward sought to dismantle.
People Party's biggest opponent could be the judiciary, which has repeatedly ruled against its predecessors. Its stance on the royal insult law - a taboo issue - could limit its ability to form alliances and gain bipartisan support for other legislation.
($1 = 35.2700 baht)
Reporting by Panarat Thepgumpanat and Chayut Setboonsarng; Writing by Devjyot Ghoshal and Martin Petty; Editing by Miral Fahmy
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.
