Too hot to handle: Rising mortgage rates prompt refi demand plunge

Reuters

Too hot to handle: Rising mortgage rates prompt refi demand plunge

2024 10월 9, 오후 3:01 GMT

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TOO HOT TO HANDLE: RISING MORTGAGE RATES PROMPT REFI DEMAND PLUNGE

The cost of financing home loans rose last week, a fact which failed to impress would-be borrowers.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) average 30-year fixed contract rate USMG=ECI heated up by 22 basis points to 6.36%, the highest it's been in a month.

While demand for loans to purchase homes USMGPI=ECI was little changed, refi applications USMGR=ECI plunged by 9.2%.

Taken together, overall mortgage demand dropped 5.1% last week.

The mortgage rate bump occurred "in the wake of stronger economic data last week, including the September jobs report," writes Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at MBA.

And indeed the 30-year fixed rate, which has the habit of tracking benchmark U.S. Treasury yields, dipped quite a bit in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve's policy pivot last month, implementing its first interest rate cut in 4-1/2 years.

But since then the economic data has been more robust and financial markets have reset their expectations regarding the extent and timing of additional rate cuts.

In the meantime, "The largest constraint for many prospective homebuyers over the past year had been the lack of inventory," Fratantoni adds. "Now, there are more homes available in many markets across the country, and with mortgage rates still low compared to recent history, at least some potential homebuyers are moving ahead."

Over the last twelve months, mortgage rates have cooled by 1.31 percentage points. Over the same time period refi demand has surged 158.5%, while purchase applications - considered among the more forward-looking housing market indicators - have grown by 8.5%.

And of course, the most forward-looking housing indicator of all is the stock market, which tends to reflect where investors expect the market to be six to twelve months down the road.

With that in mind, the S&P 1500 Homebuilding index .SPCOMHOME and the Philadelphia SE Housing index .HGX have gained 71.8% and 58.7%, versus the broader S&P 500's 32.6% advance over the same time period.

(Stephen Culp)

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