Currencies flat, Romania may see first rate cut in 3 years
WARSAW, July 5 (Reuters) -Central European currencies were mostly flat on Friday, with investors analysing fresh data from Hungary and Poland's central bank's inflation forecasts, while the Romanian central bank may cut interest rates for the first time in three years.
Czech markets remain closed on Friday and U.S. traders return from their July 4 holiday, with the spotlight on nonfarm payrolls data later in the day. Markets are also awaiting the results of French parliamentary elections on Sunday.
Poland's central bank said in its inflation report published on Friday that the consumer price index (CPI),which slowed in the first half of 2024 back to the central bank's target range, will temporarily rise again and peak in the first quarter of 2025.
On Thursday, the central bank governor said that interest rate cuts would not take placebefore 2026 as inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months, a day after policymakers kept the cost of credit unchanged for a ninth month in a row.
"The Polish zloty and domestic debt remain under the influence of yesterday's surprising statement by the president of the National Bank of Poland that interest rates will be reduced in 2026 at the earliest. The EUR/PLN exchange rate may move below 4.28 today," Bank Millennium analysts said.
However, the central bank's Monetary Policy Council memberLudwik Kotecki told Reuters that the council will consider cutting rates in the first half of 2025.
The zloty EURPLN= traded at 4.2835 per euro at 0842 GMT, unchanged on the day.
Focus will shift later on Friday to Romania's central bank as itmay deliver its first rate cut in three years. All but one analysts polled by Reuters earlier this week said they expect the key interest rate to be cut to 6.75% from 7% currently.
Yet, analysts expect the scope of cuts to be limited this year due to double-digit wage rises and fiscal uncertainty ahead of presidential and parliamentary elections.
"In May, the central bank cited fiscal risks, strong wage increases, and the acceleration in consumer lending as reasons to delay the first rate cut. The decision making process is data-dependent," Romanian bank BCR said.
"Although these risks are still present, inflation dropped in May much faster than anticipated, compared to both market expectations and the central bank's forecast."
On the other hand, ING said the central bank could wait for new forecasts in August before it cuts rates.
"However, it is obvious that it will be a close call. EUR/RON remains untouched, and we do not expect any changes here before the end of this year," it said in a note.
Romania's leu EURRON= was stable at 4.9773 per euro.
Elsewhere, the crown EURCZK= was 0.2% weaker at 25.1710, with local markets closed for a holiday. The Hungarian forint EURHUF= gained 0.1% to 392.30 per euro.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1042 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.1710 | 25.1170 | -0.21% | -1.87% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 392.3000 | 392.7000 | +0.10% | -2.32% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2835 | 4.2825 | -0.02% | +1.42% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9773 | 4.9768 | -0.01% | -0.06% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9500 | 117.0500 | +0.09% | +0.25% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1572.19 | 1572.1900 | +0.00% | +11.19% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 72128.93 | 72351.87 | -0.31% | +18.99% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2546.96 | 2549.11 | -0.08% | +8.71% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 18369.36 | 18385.28 | -0.09% | +19.51% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.9980 | 0.0000 | +106bps | +1bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.9760 | -0.0020 | +140bps | +1bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.1620 | -0.0040 | +160bps | +2bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.3450 | 0.0610 | +241bps | +7bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.7690 | 0.0370 | +319bps | +5bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.8400 | -0.0100 | +327bps | +1bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.32 | 4.08 | 3.88 | 4.69 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 7.12 | 6.87 | 6.62 | 6.88 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.84 | 5.79 | 5.59 | 5.86 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest, Luiza Ilie in Bucharest and Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk in Warsaw; Editing by Sonia Cheema
For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/
Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=
Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.