Eerie pre-US election calm, RBA sets rates
By Jamie McGeever
Nov 5 (Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
As investors make last-minute position adjustments ahead of the U.S. presidential election, a flood of top-tier economic indicators and a major policy decision could kick trading activity in Asian markets up a couple of gears on Tuesday.
Inflation numbers from South Korea, the Philippines and Thailand, third-quarter GDP from Indonesia, a services purchasing managers index report from China, and an interest rate decision from Australia all land before polling stations open across the U.S.
Japanese markets are open after Monday's Cultural Day holiday, which should boost yen trading volume. The dollar slipped as low as 151.50 yen on Monday as U.S. yields retraced some of last week's steep rise, and as investors unwound some of their so-called 'Trump trades' of recent weeks.
There was an eerie sense of a calm before the storm on Monday - world stocks were flat, Wall Street gave back some of Friday's gains, Treasury yields dipped, and U.S. bond market volatility likely eased off Friday's one-year high.
The weekend produced a flurry of polls that both Republicans and Democrats could point to as evidence they are on track to win the White House, the most notable perhaps being the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll which showed Kamala Harris has a surprise 3-point lead over Trump in the typically Republican-leaning state.
Even if that is the case, it still shows a very tight race. As Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid highlights, RealClearPolitics data shows polling averages put Trump at 48.5% and Harris at 48.4%.
On this measure, the two candidates have been within two percentage points of each other since mid-August.
In terms of the popular vote, this could be the closest election on record, Reid notes.
Before that, however, Tuesday's Asia & Pacific calendar is brimming with key releases, chief among them the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision.
The RBA is widely expected to leave its cash rate on hold at 4.35%, where it has been since November last year, in the face of solid economic growth and sticky core inflation.
Traders reckon the RBA will be one of the most hawkish G10 central banks, cutting rates by little more than 50 basis points by the end of next year. That compares with cumulative cuts of 100 bps or more from their counterparts in the U.S., Euro zone, Britain, Canada and New Zealand.
Annual inflation in South Korea is expected to have cooled to 1.4% in October, which would be the lowest since February 2021, while Indonesia's economy expanded at an annual rate of 5% in the July-October period, according to a Reuters poll.
If China's manufacturing PMI figures are any guide, the Caixin services PMI on Tuesday could show the sector recorded modest growth in October.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:
- U.S. presidential election
- Australia central bank decision
- China Caixin services PMI (October)
The Trump Trade https://tmsnrt.rs/3YeC3tB
Closest U.S. election popular vote ever? https://tmsnrt.rs/48RuXyF
RBA decides, 'hawkish pause' expected https://tmsnrt.rs/3YQ4ZYF
Reporting by Jamie McGeever, editing by Bill Berkrot
Actifs liés
Dernières actualités
Avertissement : Les entités de XM Group proposent à notre plateforme de trading en ligne un service d'exécution uniquement, autorisant une personne à consulter et/ou à utiliser le contenu disponible sur ou via le site internet, qui n'a pas pour but de modifier ou d'élargir cette situation. De tels accès et utilisation sont toujours soumis aux : (i) Conditions générales ; (ii) Avertissements sur les risques et (iii) Avertissement complet. Un tel contenu n'est par conséquent fourni que pour information générale. En particulier, sachez que les contenus de notre plateforme de trading en ligne ne sont ni une sollicitation ni une offre de participation à toute transaction sur les marchés financiers. Le trading sur les marchés financiers implique un niveau significatif de risques pour votre capital.
Tout le matériel publié dans notre Centre de trading en ligne est destiné à des fins de formation / d'information uniquement et ne contient pas – et ne doit pas être considéré comme contenant – des conseils et recommandations en matière de finance, de fiscalité des investissements ou de trading, ou un enregistrement de nos prix de trading ou une offre, une sollicitation, une transaction à propos de tout instrument financier ou bien des promotions financières non sollicitées à votre égard.
Tout contenu tiers, de même que le contenu préparé par XM, tels que les opinions, actualités, études, analyses, prix, autres informations ou liens vers des sites tiers contenus sur ce site internet sont fournis "tels quels", comme commentaires généraux sur le marché et ne constituent pas des conseils en investissement. Dans la mesure où tout contenu est considéré comme de la recherche en investissement, vous devez noter et accepter que le contenu n'a pas été conçu ni préparé conformément aux exigences légales visant à promouvoir l'indépendance de la recherche en investissement et, en tant que tel, il serait considéré comme une communication marketing selon les lois et réglementations applicables. Veuillez vous assurer que vous avez lu et compris notre Avis sur la recherche en investissement non indépendante et notre avertissement sur les risques concernant les informations susdites, qui peuvent consultés ici.
