Dollar slips, stocks edge up before tight US election
Adds quote, updates prices
Wall street notch slim gains ahead of Tuesday's US election
European shares flat
Treasury yields fall as investors temper Trump victory trade
Dollar falls as Kamala Harris takes lead in Iowa poll
Markets also eye Fed rate review, China NPC meet
Oil rises on OPEC+ output hike delay
By Koh Gui Qing and Tom Wilson
NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) -The dollar fell while stocks eked out slim gains on Monday as investors treaded carefully before the U.S. presidential election that will impact the world economy, with a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut also expected later in the week.
In the U.S. presidential race, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls ahead of Tuesday's vote. It might not be clear who has won for days after voting ends.
Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs may put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, analysts believe, while Harris is seen as the continuity candidate.
"We are too evenly divided and polarized to suggest a red sweep," Frank Luntz, Republican consultant and pollster, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. "The Senate looks like it will swing Republican, but the presidency and the house are simply too close to call," Luntz said.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS added 0.3%, while the dollar index =USD, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, eased 0.29% to 103.63.
The dollar slid against a host of European and Asian currencies, losing 0.76% against the euro EUR=EBS to $1.090, and falling 0.7% against the Japanese yen JPY=EBS to 151.90. USD/
The U.S. Treasury market, which has priced for a Trump victory in the past month that sent yields shooting higher, saw traders square positions on Monday after a poll showed Harris with a surprise lead in Iowa. US/
U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note fell 9 basis points (bps) to 4.28% US10YT=RR, on track for its largest daily fall since late August.
The U.S. two-year Treasury yield fell for the first time in six days, down 6.8bps at 4.135% US2YT=RR and on pace for its biggest one-day decline in two months.
European stocks .STOXX were flat, with energy stocks .SXEP among top gainers as a decision by OPEC+ to delay plans to increase output pushed up oil prices.
British stocks .FTSE. outperformed continental indexes to add 0.4%, helped by the energy sector.
"Tomorrow will shape the direction of the world economy and geopolitics for the next four years," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.
They cautioned that "there remains a large degree of uncertainty around both the result, including the very tight House (of Representatives) race, and when we will know it."
RATES FOCUS
The week will also provide investors with global monetary policy catalysts. The most closely watched of a slew of rate decisions is the Fed, while decisions are also due from the Bank of England (BoE), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's Norges Bank.
Markets are leaning towards a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut. FEDWATCH
"Based on current data, we see no reason for (the FOMC) to rush through rate cuts," said analysts at ANZ.
"The election and uncertainty over the future fiscal path also support arguments for caution in recalibrating monetary policy."
Earlier, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.7%, recovering from its fall to a five-week low on Friday.
This week's meeting of China's powerful National People's Congress (NPC) standing committee is at the top of investors' radar.
The NPC meets from Nov. 4 to Nov. 8, and any further details on a raft of recently announced stimulus measures are in focus.
Chinese blue-chip stocks .CSI300 gained 1.4%, with the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC up 1.2%.
Reuters reported that at the NPC meeting China is considering approving the issuance of more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in extra debt in the next few years to revive its fragile economy, a fiscal package which is expected to be further bolstered if Trump wins the election.
The Bank of England, which meets on Thursday, is similarly expected to ease rates by 25 bps. Its decision has been complicated by a sell-off in gilts following the Labour government's budget last week.
Sterling GBP=D3 nudged 0.5% higher to $1.298, helped by a weaker dollar. It fell 0.3% last week.
Oil prices rose after OPEC+ said on Sunday it would delay a planned December output hike by one month. Brent futures LCOc1 rose 2% to $74.6. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 added 2.2% to $71.01. O/R
World FX rates YTD http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
Reporting by Tom Wilson in London; additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Hugh Lawson, Gareth Jones and Ros Russell
Actifs liés
Dernières actualités
Avertissement : Les entités de XM Group proposent à notre plateforme de trading en ligne un service d'exécution uniquement, autorisant une personne à consulter et/ou à utiliser le contenu disponible sur ou via le site internet, qui n'a pas pour but de modifier ou d'élargir cette situation. De tels accès et utilisation sont toujours soumis aux : (i) Conditions générales ; (ii) Avertissements sur les risques et (iii) Avertissement complet. Un tel contenu n'est par conséquent fourni que pour information générale. En particulier, sachez que les contenus de notre plateforme de trading en ligne ne sont ni une sollicitation ni une offre de participation à toute transaction sur les marchés financiers. Le trading sur les marchés financiers implique un niveau significatif de risques pour votre capital.
Tout le matériel publié dans notre Centre de trading en ligne est destiné à des fins de formation / d'information uniquement et ne contient pas – et ne doit pas être considéré comme contenant – des conseils et recommandations en matière de finance, de fiscalité des investissements ou de trading, ou un enregistrement de nos prix de trading ou une offre, une sollicitation, une transaction à propos de tout instrument financier ou bien des promotions financières non sollicitées à votre égard.
Tout contenu tiers, de même que le contenu préparé par XM, tels que les opinions, actualités, études, analyses, prix, autres informations ou liens vers des sites tiers contenus sur ce site internet sont fournis "tels quels", comme commentaires généraux sur le marché et ne constituent pas des conseils en investissement. Dans la mesure où tout contenu est considéré comme de la recherche en investissement, vous devez noter et accepter que le contenu n'a pas été conçu ni préparé conformément aux exigences légales visant à promouvoir l'indépendance de la recherche en investissement et, en tant que tel, il serait considéré comme une communication marketing selon les lois et réglementations applicables. Veuillez vous assurer que vous avez lu et compris notre Avis sur la recherche en investissement non indépendante et notre avertissement sur les risques concernant les informations susdites, qui peuvent consultés ici.
