Czech inflation slowdown hits crown, market rates fall

Reuters

Czech inflation slowdown hits crown, market rates fall

10. Jul. 2024 um 8:36 vorm. GMT

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PRAGUE, July 10 (Reuters) -The crown fell to a three-month low on Wednesday after a surprise drop in the Czech headline inflation rate sparked bets the central bank could cut interest rates quicker than expected.

The crown's EURCZK= 0.5% drop made it the biggest faller in central Europe, where other currencies were able to gain.

Czech inflation eased to 2.0% year-on-year in June, well below a Reuters poll forecast of 2.5% and central bank expectations.

The Czech National Bank (CNB) has delivered four straight 50 basis-point rate cuts but has signalled a likely slowdown to that tempo at upcoming meetings.

The crown had slipped to 25.397 to the euro by 0819 GMT, hitting a session low of 25.425, its lowest since April. Market rates also fell by between 12 and 15 basis points, although investors are still pricing in a 25 bp cut coming at the bank's August meeting.

"Downward pressure on CNB rates is likely to intensify after today's data," Martin Gurtler, analyst at Komercni Banka, said.

With consensus seeing the main rate at 4%, from the current 4.75%, at the end of the year, he said the chances of it falling below that are growing.

Elsewhere, the Polish zloty EURPLN= continued to march higher after National Bank of Poland governor Adam Glapinski said last week that interest rate cuts would not happen before 2026.

The zloty added 0.25% on Wednesday, to 4.2515 to the euro, approaching its four-year high just past 4.25.

Hungary's forint EURHUF= recovered ground, coming after losses following inflation data there below expectations and announcements of new government tax measures. The forint was 0.45% up at 393.05 per euro.

MHB Bank said markets may be starting to view the measures - including seeking so-called defence fund contributions from banks and other companies - as being "aimed at keeping the budget deficit under control, so investors should be less concerned that the risks surrounding the deficit target are not being addressed by the cabinet."

	CEE MARKETS	SNAPSHOT	AT 1019 CET
		CURRENCIES
		Latest	Previous	Daily	Change
		trade	close	change	in 2024
Czech crown	EURCZK=	25.3970	25.2690	-0.50%	-2.74%
Hungary forint	EURHUF=	393.0500	394.8000	+0.45%	-2.51%
Polish zloty	EURPLN=	4.2515	4.2620	+0.25%	+2.19%
Romanian leu	EURRON=	4.9732	4.9720	-0.02%	+0.02%
Serbian dinar	EURRSD=	116.9500	117.0500	+0.09%	+0.25%
Note: daily change	calculated from			1800 CET

		Latest	Previous	Daily	Change
			close	change	in 2024
Prague	.PX	1574.82	1570.2700	+0.29%	+11.37%
Budapest	.BUX	71532.96	71169.33	+0.51%	+18.00%
Warsaw	.WIG20	2539.95	2543.85	-0.15%	+8.41%
Bucharest	.BETI	18374.25	18334.03	+0.22%	+19.54%

				Spread	Daily
				vs Bund	change in
Czech Republic					spread
2-year	CZ2YT=RR	3.8260	-0.0840	+092bps	-6bps
5-year	CZ5YT=RR	3.8470	-0.0620	+131bps	-3bps
10-year	CZ10YT=RR	4.0160	-0.0820	+148bps	-4bps
Poland
2-year	PL2YT=RR	5.2220	-0.0260	+232bps	+0bps
5-year	PL5YT=RR	5.6190	-0.0950	+309bps	-6bps
10-year	PL10YT=RR	5.7780	-0.0290	+324bps	+2bps

	FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS
		3x6	6x9	9x12	3M interbank
Czech Rep	CZKFRAPRIBOR=	4.26	4.00	3.81	4.67
Hungary	HUFFRABUBOR=	6.51	6.21	5.91	6.86
Poland	PLNFRAWIBOR=	5.80	5.73	5.50	5.86
Note: FRA quotes	are for ask prices

Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest; Editing by David Holmes

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