USD/JPY stretched after best week since 2009
Dollar-yen topping 150 may be a stretch.
The pair has surged from below 140 to 148 in three weeks as traders unwound long yen positions on an abrupt shift in monetary policy underpinnings. It is on pace for its best week since 2009 after Friday’s strong U.S. jobs data obliterated expectations of a jumbo Fed cut. By contrast, the Bank of Japan is seen holding policy steady following dovish comments this week by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and central bank Governor Kazuo Ueda.
There are several factors working in USD/JPY’s favor as a new month of trading commences. First, oil, a key import of Japan, is underpinned by renewed efforts to stimulate the global economy and supply concerns as Middle East fighting rages.
Second, renewed optimism about the U.S. economy supports Treasury yields. Third, uncertainty about the upcoming U.S. presidential election could see investors pivot toward the dollar for safety.
But moving above 150 or the more significant 152 level would take a shift in sentiment. Prior to unwinding the yen carry in late-July, strong speculative selling and subdued levels of volatility helped send the currency to its lowest level in over three decades. Recreating that bubbly environment is not evident as long as the BOJ is biased, however timidly, toward hiking while others cut.
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(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
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