Zloty pulls back from testing multi-year highs
Corrects timing of central bank governor statement to a month earlier in paragraph 3
WARSAW, July 16 (Reuters) -The zloty came under pressure on Tuesday, pulling back from the multi-year highs it approached in recent days, as steady interest rates amid policy easing elsewhere continue to prop up the Polish currency.
In early July, Poland's central bank governor said interest-rate cuts would not happen before 2026, as inflation was expected to accelerate.
In July the central bank kept interest rates on hold for the ninth month in a row. A month earlier,the governor hadsignalled the possibility of easing from mid-2025.
By 0947 GMT the Polish zloty EURPLN= had shed 0.4% against the euro, trading at 4.2670.
It had pulled back from the 4.2480 level it touched on Monday, before retreating, for the second time in the span of less than a week, a hair off of the more than four-year high of 4.2470 hit in late May.
A Warsaw-based trader said the zloty was under "light pressure" today, attributing it to some risk off sentiment hitting emerging market assets, but called 4.25 a "good" support level.
"Yesterday again saw attempts to bring the euro below 4.25 zlotys. They weren't as successful, probably due to the lack of strong impulses from core markets and calm trade in the region," state-owned development bank BGK said in a note.
"We believe that events on global markets - including the steepening of the U.S. curve - may currently make strengthening the zloty more difficult. As a result, today we expect calm trading on the zloty in the range of 4.25-4.27 zlotys per euro."
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= traded 0.1% lower at 391.75 per euro, largely holding onto gains from the previous sessions.
"I attribute the strengthening of the forint that started on Friday to global factors," a Budapest-based trader said.
"It is a calm summer trading day, though, with the forint trading in a tight range between 390.50 and 392. Retail sales data from the U.S. in the afternoon could move the market a bit."
Bets for a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September also helped the forint, according to the trader.
Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Monday the three U.S. inflation readings over the second quarter of this year "add somewhat to confidence" that the pace of price increases is returning to the Fed's target in a sustainable fashion, remarks that suggest a turn to interest rate cuts may not be far off.
National Bank of Hungary (NBH) rate-setters, who have cut borrowing costs by 1,100 basis points since May 2023, are scheduled to meet next week, with deputy governor Barnabas Virag saying on Monday that possible further small reduction in the base rate is an "open question".
The Czech crown EURCZK= gained 0.1% and traded at 25.3630 per euro, edging away from 3-month lows after lower-than-expected inflation data last week, which increased bets on more interest rate cuts ahead.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1147 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.3630 | 25.3985 | +0.14% | -2.61% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 391.7500 | 391.3800 | -0.09% | -2.19% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2670 | 4.2521 | -0.35% | +1.82% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9651 | 4.9685 | +0.07% | +0.19% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0000 | 117.0200 | +0.02% | +0.21% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1599.99 | 1600.2300 | -0.01% | +13.15% |
Budapest | .BUX | 72400.98 | 72730.44 | -0.45% | +19.43% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2521.67 | 2569.86 | -1.88% | +7.63% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 18584.96 | 18546.14 | +0.21% | +20.91% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.7340 | 0.0340 | +098bps | +7bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.6550 | -0.0480 | +126bps | -1bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.8560 | -0.0420 | +143bps | +0bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.1310 | 0.0240 | +238bps | +6bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.4030 | -0.1300 | +300bps | -9bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6000 | -0.0550 | +317bps | -2bps |
FORWARD | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.13 | 3.73 | 3.54 | 4.61 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.40 | 6.06 | 5.73 | 6.83 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.80 | 5.66 | 5.38 | 5.86 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Anita Komuves in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Kim Coghill
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