Sterling slips after US data beat; UK CPI in focus
GBP/USD backed further away from recent trend highs near 1.30 after hotter than forecast U.S. June retail sales dialed back Federal Reserve rate cut expectations slightly, although the shallow dip from 1.2970 to 1.2939 hints that an assault on 1.30 remains in the cards.
With U.S. retail sales only slightly diminishing bullish sterling expectations, Wednesday's UK inflation data is gaining in importance.
Reuters forecasts indicate a steady 3.5% YY print for UK core CPI and slight dip for headline CPI to 1.9% YY. Should the data surprise to the downside, GBP/USD is likely to move lower courtesy of a dovish shift in Bank of England rate expectations.
If UK inflation data unexpectedly rises, it should increase the probability of an eighth consecutive BoE rate hold next month, with scope for sterling to vault 1.2995 resistance and target its 1.3041 late July 2023 high and 2023 high of 1.3144 (July 13).
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GBP Chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/4cKG9hE
(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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