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Technical Analysis – USDJPY flirts with 142.00 but remains bearish



  • USDJPY bounces off 14-month low

  • Remains well above uptrend line

  • MACD and RSI still beneath their mid-points

USDJPY rebounded off the 14-month low of 139.56 but is still heading down a few hours before the Fed decision. The price has lost more than 13% since it peaked at 161.94 in July.

Technically, the MACD oscillator is standing marginally above its trigger line below the zero level, while the RSI is sloping down beneath the neutral threshold of 50.

If the price continues the downside pressure then the market may revisit the previous trough at 139.56 before tumbling towards the 137.20 support, taken from the bottom in July 2023.

On the other hand, a successful penetration of the 143.40 resistance, which holds near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) may send traders to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 161.94 to 139.56 at 144.80. Rising further, the bulls may start an upside correction, hitting the 147.15 barricade ahead of the 50-day SMA, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci of 148.10.

In brief, USDJPY has been in a strong bearish tendency over the last two months and only a climb back above the uptrend line and the 200-day SMA around 151.00 may switch the outlook to positive.

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