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Comments & Briefs

Analysis - 3 hours ago

Quick brief – Wall Street steps back after steady core PCE inflation data

US core PCE inflation shows stickiness as expected25bps rate cut likely in December but a pause could followS&P 500 takes a breather near record high  The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE index which excludes food and energy prices, matched analysts’ expectations, remaining unchanged at 2.8% y/y versus 2.7% y/y registered in September.The monthly change also met expectations for a steady increase of 0.3% for the second consecutive month, though this is still higher than
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Analysis - 9 hours ago

Daily Comment – Dollar pulls back ahead of key inflation data

Dollar traders lock gaze on PCE inflation numbersInflation stickiness could increase Fed pause chancesYen strengthens on safe-haven demandS&P 500 and Dow Jones hit record highs, gold reboundsWill PCE inflation data increase Fed pause betsAlthough Trump’s tariff threats triggered notable market moves early on Tuesday, some of the reaction was tempered later in the day, with the dollar pulling back against all its peers on Wednesday.Perhaps this may have been due to profit taking ahead of to
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Analysis - 1 day ago

Daily Comment – Dollar rebounds, loonie tumbles on Trump tariff threats

Trump vows tariffs on Canada, Mexico and ChinaDollar gains, loonie tumbles the most among majorsRBNZ expected to deliver another bold rate cutGold and oil fall on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire headlinesTrump threatens Canada, Mexico and China with tariffsThe US dollar recharged today after US President-elect Donald Trump said that he will impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico and that he will charge an additional 10% on Chinese goods.Among the major currencies, the Canadian doll
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Analysis - 2 days ago

Quick Brief – Israel and Lebanon eye a potential ceasefire deal

Israel and Lebanon reportedly close to a ceasefire deal, with more details expected on TuesdayRisk-off sentiment softens; gold retreats sharply to $2,626In early US trading hours, there was positive news from the geopolitical front. According to a US official, Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah are nearing a ceasefire agreement following recent shuttle diplomacy with the Biden administration.The US-proposed plan involves a 60-day halt to hostilities.
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Analysis - 2 days ago

Daily Comment – Geopolitics and Trump’s cabinet selections guide market sentiment

Possible ceasefire in Lebanon, gold divesA shortened week in the US due to Thanksgiving celebrationsTrump’s Treasury Secretary nomination pleases equity marketsDollar loses ground against euro and yen; bitcoin fails at $100kPossible ceasefire in Lebanon, gold takes noticeContrary to the continued escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the outgoing US administration under President Biden is reportedly making a last-minute effort to achieve a ceasefire in the Middle East.
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Analysis - 5 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar and gold gain as geopolitical risks and eurozone data worsen

Gold continues to gain, as geopolitics generates headlinesHawkish Fedspeak and strong US data support the dollarEuro suffers from another weak set of PMIsYen fails to benefit from stronger inflationWar rhetoric continues, gold takes noticeThe Ukraine-Russia conflict remains in the spotlight. The aggressive rhetoric from both sides continues, with US President Biden giving the green light for the use of anti-personnel mines, banned by more than 150 countries, and Russia responding by launching an
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Analysis - 6 days ago

Daily Comment – Nvidia fails to lift markets, dollar stands tall

Stocks remain directionless even after stellar earnings by NvidiaDeclining odds for December Fed rate cut weigh on marketsDollar holds near highs, yen rallies, Bitcoin soars to $97,000Nvidia can’t satisfy lofty expectationsEquity markets continue to trade with lackluster momentum, struggling for direction even after AI giant, Nvidia, announced outstanding third quarter earnings.
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Analysis - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Geopolitics dictates market sentiment, but dollar fails to benefit

Geopolitics in the spotlight, gold gainsDollar fails to benefit from the risk-off reactionStocks slightly in the green, as markets await Nvidia earningsPound gains after CPI report; bitcoin reaches $94,000It almost feels like the Cold War againDevelopments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict are monopolizing the markets' interest, as the first usage of long-range US missiles prompted a quick revision of Russia’s nuclear weapons doctrine.
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Analysis - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Stocks cautiously edge up amid geopolitical and inflation risks

Softer yields lift stocks despite Ukraine fears and rate cut doubtsGold extends rebound, oil also higher in choppy tradingDollar on the backfoot amid lack of direction as yen firmsStocks rebound but struggle for momentumEquity markets were in a perky mood on Tuesday as a recovery on Wall Street helped Asian stock markets advance, although European shares were more mixed.
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Analysis - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Gold edges up amid Ukraine tensions, stocks and dollar subdued

Gold rebounds as Biden lets Ukraine use long-range missiles on RussiaYen slips again after Ueda offers no clues on December hikeEquities mixed as Trump trade fadesUkraine war escalates as Biden U-turns on missilesThe conflict between Ukraine and Russia took a dangerous turn on Sunday after President Biden gave Kyiv the green light to use long-range US missiles inside Russia.
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Wall Street loses more steam as Powell not in a hurry to cut rates

US stocks set for weekly loss as Powell adds to Fed’s hawkish soundbiteBut dollar unable to hit fresh highs; US retail sales eyed nextYen firms after verbal intervention; euro also reboundsDecember cut in doubt after Powell commentsFed rate cut expectations were dramatically pared back on Thursday after Fed chief, Jerome Powell, rounded up the week’s hawkish rhetoric by adding to the sense of caution about the pace of easing.
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Dollar wavers on US CPI, surges on hawkish Fed remarks

US CPI meets expectations, bolstering rate cut hopesBut Fed hawks spoil the mood as dollar hits one-year highGold continues to bleed even as stocks stumble Dollar ascends as Fed wary after CPI reportThe US dollar’s post-election surge shows no sign of ending as it advanced to one-year highs against a basket of currencies on Thursday, causing fresh pain for its rivals.
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Quick Brief – US CPI ticks higher in October as expected, dollar dips slightly

Headline CPI edges up to 2.6% from 2.4%; Core CPI unchanged at 3.3%But rate cut bets for December strengthen CPI inflation in the United States rose from 2.4% in September to 2.6% y/y in October, while core CPI that excludes food and energy prices remained unchanged at 3.3% y/y. Both were in line with expectations, offering some relief to investors who were spooked by hawkish Fed remarks on Tuesday.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned that an upside surprise in inflation before the De
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – US CPI report could reverse the post-election euphoria

Markets take a breather as Trump assembles his teamFocus turns today to US inflation and FedspeakGermany prepares for snap election, euro on the back footYen underperformance continues, intervention talk resurfacesMusk joins Trump’s team, Germany sets election datePresident-elect Trump is gradually assembling his cabinet, with the market anticipating the most crucial appointment, the Treasury Secretary.
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Quick Brief – Are oil prices headed for September’s lows?

Oil prices tumble to a two-week low after Trump’s victoryStronger dollar on Fed pause bets weighTariffs on Chinese goods and demand concerns also driversOil prices fell sharply lately, driven by a cocktail of developments, including a stronger dollar following Donald Trump’s election as the 47th US president, concerns about what that presidency means for China, the world’s largest oil consumer, disappointment about China’s efforts to stimulate the economy, and OPEC’s downside revision
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Dollar extends gains, bitcoin soars but stocks lose momentum

Tariff fears weigh on euro and other majors, dollar continues to climbBitcoin and Wall Street hit new records but broader equities stumble   Gold unable to get a boost from Trump picking hawks for this team   Trump trade still powering the marketsSpeculation about the expected impact of Donald Trump’s policies continues to dominate the market theme, as investors await details about who will be in Trump’s cabinet.
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Positive sentiment lingers despite mixed newsflow

Markets continue to dance to the tune of Trump’s winGold and oil suffer, while bitcoin and equities rallyMinority government in Japan, BoJ mini-minutes unsurprisingEuro under pressure as Germany gets closer to snap electionTrump prepares to take overThe markets continue to digest Trump’s victory and last Thursday's dovish Fed rate cut, with most market participants now speculating on the course of action of the new administration as the president-elect is assembling his cabinet. In this
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Analysis - 3 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Fed delivers rate cut, stocks rally but dollar not impressed

Fed cuts rates and keeps door open to a December movePowell appears confident about the inflation outlookEquities’ euphoria continues, strongest weekly rally of 2024Yen manages to gain against the US dollarThe Fed announces a rate cutWith the markets still digesting Trump’s win, the Fed announced the much-anticipated rate cut. Unswayed by concerns that Trump’s second term might lead to extreme protectionism and thus keep inflation high, the FOMC cut rates by 25bps, with Chairman Powell app
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Analysis - 3 weeks ago

Quick Brief – BoE cuts rates for the second time in 4 years

BoE lowers rates to 4.75% as inflation drops to 1.7%Pound holds in a range in short-termAt its meeting today, the Bank of England (BoE) lowered its main interest ratesby 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75% from 5.00%, following a hold in September and a quarter-point cut in August. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to reduce interest rates versus the anticipated 7-2 majority indicated in a Reuters poll and the split vote of 5-4 in August, suggesting a slight dovish tilt.The economic dat
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Analysis - 3 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Dollar pauses rally ahead of Fed, BoE meets as well

Dollar traders take a breather as Fed decision loomsFocus to fall on how likely a pause is in coming monthsBoE expected to cut, could take the sidelines in DecemberWall Street continues to celebrate Trump’s winWill the US election outcome impact Fed policy?After hitting a four-month high on the heels of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the dollar is pulling back today, as traders may have decided to lock some profits after the sharp rally and ahead of the Fed decision later today.Wi
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