By Scott DiSavino

July 15 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% to a nine-week low on Monday on forecasts for less hot weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Traders also noted prices were depressed by rising output, the tremendous oversupply of gas still in storage and the slow return of the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas after shutting ahead of Hurricane Beryl.

Analysts said there was currently about 18% more gas in storage than is normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.8 cents, or 4.2%, to $2.231 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 10:22 a.m. EDT (1422 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since May 8.

That price drop also pushed the front-month back into technically oversold territory for the seventh time in the last nine days.

Speculators last week cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a third week in a row to their lowest since early May, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.

Even though the November-March heating season is still months away, the market already seems to be giving up on extreme cold this winter with the futures for March trading at a record low premium to April NGH25-J25 of just 19 cents per mmBtu.

March is the last month of the winter storage withdrawal season and April is the first month of the summer storage injection season. Since gas is a primarily a winter heating fuel, traders have said that summer prices should never trade above winter.

The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow maker" because rapid price moves on changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business, including the Amaranth hedge fund, which lost more than $6 billion in 2006.

In other news, Saturday and Sunday were the hottest days so far this year and Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be even hotter, according to meteorologists.

That heat will likely force power generators to continue burning lots of gas to produce electricity to keep air conditioners humming. Those power generators burned a record 54.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on July 9, according to LSEG data.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 102.3 bcfd so far in July, up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May.

U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Several producers cut output earlier in the year after futures prices dropped to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. But higher prices in April, May and June prompted some drillers, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, to return to the well pad.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly hotter than normal through at least July 30, but for some near-normal days from July 18-22.

With less hot weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 106.3 bcfd to 103.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 11.8 bcfd so far in July after Freeport LNG in Texas shut ahead of Hurricane Beryl on July 7, down from 12.8 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C